Way Too Early Playoff Projections

[custom_headline type=”center” level=”h2″ looks_like=”h2″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Playoffs? Don’t Talk about Playoffs. You kidding me?[/custom_headline]

[text_output]Oh boy Oberto everyone, the Metro is really strong again. Since our last chat the Rangers have been knocked back out of a playoff spot because of high performing teams in the East this year. Considering that situation I thought I would do a shortened version of my previous “Chart Party” (I love you Jon Bois) trying to do a bit of a prediction based on how the metro is doing so far. In this I will have season average ppg, L10 ppg, an average of those two values for all eight metro teams as of the middle of November. Ill also include the other divisions separately just to see how they look right now. Finally I will do a comparison of the Eastern Conference to see how the team stacks up as of now.

I use L10 and overall season stats as these are available and tell a story about recent and past success.[/text_output]

[text_output]Averaging can be somewhat problematic but I wanted to include a somewhat middle ground of a team’s total and recent performances. I did this by making a weighted average where the overall PPG was multiplied by the number of games the team has played and the L10 by, well, 10. These were added and divided by the addition of total games played and 10. For example the Devils setup would look like:[/text_output][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]

((1.412PPG*17games)+(1.2PPG*10games)) /((17+10)) = 1.3333PPG average

[/text_output][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]I hope this satiates you, hit me on twitter if you think I messed up or if you want to debate mathematics.[/text_output]

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[text_output]Starting with the Metropolitan I have a season total, L10 and average of the two rates prediction for all 8 teams. This is to show how the eight teams have been doing and should keep doing.[/text_output][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”971″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”972″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”974″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]So based on these three graphs some big takeaways should be easy. First off, the devils were a VERY good hockey team for the first part of the season as have been less good for the last ten games. They are still a decent team and even at their worst in the data (L10) they aren’t even close to out of anything. The second major outlier is the Flyers who, as of 7:21pm on November 15, 2017, are well below the rest of the metro in all three categories. However, the scary thing is that their overall is still a point per game season, which just goes to show you how powerful the metro is.[/text_output]

[text_output]Finally the part that we want to hear, the Rangers are not great if we look at the whole season but are incredible over the last 10 games. This is what I tried to reconcile with the weighted average shown in my last column below and on the third graph above. The point totals were found by taking the points at the current games played and adding the rate times the number of games left to play.[/text_output][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”979″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]So what we can see is that if the rangers keep this L10 pace or hopefully around the weighted average we should be in the top of the metro. In the worst case of my prediction we stay at 5^th in the division and at best we sweep the rest of the year and come out first. However, this current pace is probably unsustainable so an average seems reasonable to me and finishing second isn’t too shabby.[/text_output][line id=”” class=”” style=””]

[text_output]Moving onto the Atlantic division we can start to make some serious predictions for the east. Let me start off with[/text_output][custom_headline type=”center” level=”h3″ looks_like=”h3″ id=”” class=”” style=””]THE LIGHTNING ARE AMAZING[/custom_headline][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]Now that I’ve said that to you straight up let me take you through their numbers really quickly. In all three, ALL THREE, of my models for team performance the lightning are on track to make a record breaking season. The final numbers I have are 137, 138, and 137 points. The highest number of points EVER scored in a season was 132 by the 1976-77 Montréal Canadians and the lightning could theoretically beat that. But again, it’s all about sustainability. But moving on, here is how the season is shaping up for the Atlantic division. I’ll just be using that average pace for the three remaining divisions.[/text_output][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”976″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]So at this point, it’s looking like the division won’t change much unless the Leafs skid hard or Montréal becomes the team we have seen in the past. Can I just say again THE LIGHTNING ARE GOOD AT HOCKEY EVERYONE. Thanks, moving on.[/text_output][line id=”” class=”” style=””]

[text_output]Now to draw up a picture of the playoffs for the Eastern Conference. As we are all aware the best 3 teams from each division and then 2 wildcards are taken from the East. Going off of this I will be crossing off those teams which are currently out of the spots by quite a bit. I will be doing this based on my charts not on the basis of points or games played. From my last article I discussed a 95 point cutoff for making the playoffs and I could use that but it would feel like I am cutting a lot of very close teams out. Sorry to the fans of Philly or anyone in the Atlantic not named Tampa, Toronto, or Ottawa. Those six teams are currently playing below 90 point pace seasons so I shan’t include them. The graph starts at 80 points and 45 games to try and resolve the closeness of some of these teams. AND DANGIT TAMPA YOU’RE SUCH AN OUTLIER THIS IS HARD OK.[/text_output][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”977″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]Now that we have lots of colorful lines let’s make a table with that playoff picture.[/text_output][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”978″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]Now these probably seem slightly insane “No Penguins?” you ask. Look man, I am just reporting my numbers here. Remember that this is based on Point per game rates and not total points. To me this accounts for the differences in games played by each team. As of right now NYC metro area Teams are going to do great and get slaughtered by the THUNDERSTORM JESUS CHRIST.

But seriously, this should make a lot of BSB’s readers pretty happy seeing as the Rangers have pulled something magical together lately. Here’s to hoping that they can keep it going for the rest of the season.[/text_output][line id=”” class=”” style=””]

[text_output]Let us move on to the central. Hello Wild fans, I live by you, you guys are pretty alright, I’d pick you as a team I like. Also hello Preds fans, I like that you make the Hawks look silly and that Subban wears a cowboy hat and makes people smile. But for serious, here is how the central division looks so far.[/text_output][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”980″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]The central so far is breaking into 2 or three tiers of teams. Tier one is the Blues, Jets and Preds. Each of these three teams has a projected season total of over 100 points which is a lock for a playoff spot. Easy-peasy, don’t drop the ball Vlad and your lads, Big Buff keep doing Thangs, and well, and the Preds just have to keep looking like cup contenders.

The second tier is the Wild. They are projected for 90 points on the season which isn’t too bad, but this may not get them into the postseason. Below that are the Stars, Hawks and Avs. These three teams gain less than 85 points total in the averaged model, whoops. I mean, it’s better than last season right Avs?[/text_output][line id=”” class=”” style=””]

[text_output]Finally, the Pacific. Here we see the biggest point gap in the NHL right now. The Yotes with all the Rangers players they picked up are uh, not great Bob, while the Kings are pretty solid and the Sharks have taken that aging core on another wild ride. Shown below is the prediction graph for the Pacific division, and I promise it is only a little bit more math and charts.[/text_output][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”982″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]So uh, Arizona, sorry. I almost feel bad but YOU TOOK STEP FROM ME. But actually, no teams that are outside of Pennsylvania deserve this. Just as an aside as of this moment Derek Stepan has 8 points in 20 games. A quick bit of math puts him on a 32.8 point pace for the season (which isn’t great for step) but he is nearly on pace to OUT POINT THE TEAM. The math predicts a 33.8 point season for the Coyotes and well, I don’t feel like this is a great situation for anyone. Don’t worry Arizona, you have a dedicated fan base and tons of young talent.

Besides the Coyotes the rest of the Pacific is actually fairly close with a 29 point spread between the Sharks and the Oilers. However we do need to break down the point levels of each team a bit. Above that 95 point mark sits the Kings, the Sharks and The Flames. At this point in the season they are ahead with the Cali teams Far ahead with over 100 projected points. Next in the running is Vegas and Vancover with over 90 points apiece. With Vegas hopefully getting a non CHL goalie back at some point they may get even better but that is not in the data now. The bottom two teams of Anaheim and Edmonton have some work to do. I really don’t know what happened to them since the playoffs of last year.[/text_output][line id=”” class=”” style=””]

[text_output]Now I will do the same analysis I did for the Eastern conference for the West here.[/text_output][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”984″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]In this case there were 9 teams above 90 points in the predictive model. Here is how the spots break down:[/text_output][gap size=”1.313em” id=”” class=”” style=””][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”985″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]Here is how the math currently predict the Western Conference Playoffs to shake out. Minnesota misses the second wildcard by a single point and no one is really close after that. The Blues look to be the strongest team in the West but not by much. However the 10 point spread between The Blues and Jets and the next closest teams speaks highly of the central conference.[/text_output][line id=”” class=”” style=””]

[text_output]I really did not intend this to become a full playoff picture but ya know things happen I guess. If you are interested in how I did all this or if you want a copy of my spreadsheet I’ll uh, figure something out I guess. But it is as accurate as it is right now (prior to the games being played on November 15, 2017) and we can surely see how wrong I am when someone crashes and burns while another team flies up into the sky (playoffs). I really enjoy these early predictions and I hope with mine I have at least provided some context as to why I am choosing the teams I have, even though they might not make rational sense. Throughout the season I plan to update my predictions based on this model and see how it holds up over the course of the season. Maybe it works well, maybe not. This is in fact my first rodeo.

As always I leave you in some sort of health,

Rex

(Disclaimer this was written before the games played on November 15)[/text_output]