Alright, maybe not Millwood.
It’s always a fun exercise to evaluate the careers of players appearing on the ballot for the first time, but 2018 includes an intriguing name I feel needs more focus than others.
That player would be Johan Santana.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”1012″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]First, the raw numbers.
Johan Santana was 139-78 in 12 seasons spent with the Minnesota Twins and New York Mets, compiling a 3.20 ERA, a 3.44 FIP and striking out 1,988 batters in 2,025.2 innings pitched or 24.1% of the batter he faced in his career while only walking 6.9% of the batters he faced.
Three times, Santana led his respective league in ERA (twice leading all of baseball), was the American League wins leader in 2006 (19), and the league-leader in strikeouts three times (twice leading the Majors in Ks). Five times, Santana struck out 200+ batters in a single year, and for four straight years (04-07), Santana led the league in lowest WHIP.
Santana is also a two-time Cy Young Award winner (’04 and ’06) while finishing in the top five of Cy Young voting three other times (’05, ’07 and ’08).
For his career, Baseball Reference gives Santana a 50.7 WAR, while FanGraphs has him pegged at 45.3. From 2003-10, Baseball Reference has Santana posting a WAR of at least 4.2 or better, with his peak coming in 2004. FanGraphs, meanwhile, had Santana at 3.0 WAR or better in every year from 2002-10, with a peak of 7.1 in 2005.
So, let’s get down to it: is Johan Santana a Hall of Famer?
The most helpful tool I’ve ever come across in evaluating if a player is a Hall of Famer or not is Jay Jaffe’s JAWS measurement, which takes into account eras, peaks and longevity.
JAWS places Johan Santana as the 85th-best starting pitcher of all time, which both sounds underwhelming and impressive all at once. It puts Johan Santana behind pitchers that will never sniff the Hall of Fame, such as Bret Saberhagen (67th), Kevin Appier (76th), Chuck Finley (77th) and Orel Hershiser (80th).
It also, however, puts Santana ahead of Hall of Famers people wouldn’t think twice about, including Whitey Ford (98th), Dizzy Dean (114th) and Catfish Hunter (166th).
The name I think of most when I think of Johan Santana because injuries derailed a player at the height of his power while also robbing that player of post-peak effectiveness: Sandy Koufax.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=”” src=”1040″][text_output]The similarities between Santana and Koufax are a little shocking.
Koufax ranks 88th in Jaffe’s JAWS ranking, or three spots behind Santana. Koufax’s WAR7 ranking (the total of his seven-best WAR years) is only 1.3 better than Santana’s (46.1 vs. 44.8). Like Santana, Koufax’s career was limited to only 12 years due to injuries. The difference being, Koufax went out in a blaze of glory, winning three Cy Youngs in four years (including the 1963 National League MVP) and winning 25+ games in three of those years.
Of course, Koufax was dominating in the Era of the Pitcher, when pitchers across the league were so dominant that it led to the lowering of the pitcher’s mound to give hitters a fighting chance. Santana, meanwhile, played in a much more offensive era, even if it wasn’t the peak of the Steroids Era.
Personally, I can’t help but think of Koufax when I think of Santana. What would Santana’s career look like if his shoulder never failed him? Would he be north of 20 wins? Hell, Santana last pitched in the majors at 33-years old. You could make the argument that he would still be pitching today if his shoulder didn’t give out.
It comes down to this; how dominant was Santana at his peak? Was he without question the best pitcher in baseball at his absolute best? Were other pitchers stacked up against Santana when trying to judge their greatness?
That answer, to me: Yes.
Johan Santana’s five-year stretch from 2004 to the end of 2008 is one of the best stretches any starting pitcher has put together. If you needed to win one game during those years and you could choose any pitcher active, I would have no problem taking Santana someone like Roy Halladay, who was at the height of his powers in the same exact era.
Longevity is what will hold Santana back, but a player shouldn’t be punished for his inability to stay healthy. You can’t take demerits off a player’s case for what he wasn’t physically able to accomplish. You can only judge a player based on what he was able to do when he took to the mound. Every time Johan Santana took the mound, he was special. That’s what the Hall of Fame is meant to recognize.
Some of this is probably biased. The greatest baseball game I’ve seen in my life to this point was started by Santana. It was the second to last day of the 2008 season, and the Mets were locked in a dead heat with the Milwaukee Brewers for the National League Wild Card spot.
Santana, pitching with a torn meniscus in his knee, squared off with the Marlins on three-days rest. Every Mets fan knew if Santana didn’t go the distance in that game, the Mets would probably lose, considering how atrocious their bullpen was in September of that year. On one leg, Santana delivered a complete game shutout, surrendering only three hits (one of which a lead-off double in the 9th inning) and striking out nine.
It’s the single greatest pitching performance I’ve ever seen in person. Four years later, Santana, coming off another major shoulder surgery, pitched the first no-hitter in Mets history in what would turn out to be one of his final starts in the league. All of this, admittedly, clouds my judgement when it comes to evaluating Santana.
But when I sit down my kids one day, and I bore them with another baseball story about the good ol’ days when I was a teenager and who was great when I was young, Johan Santana will always be one of the first pitchers I mention from the 2000s.
If injuries didn’t rob us of more years at the end of his career, this wouldn’t be a debate. I don’t think it should be too big of a mountain to climb, anyway.
Johan Santana pitched like a Hall of Famer when he was healthy. That’s how we should remember him, and that’s how he should be honored.[/text_output]
Author: Greg Kaplan
Greg Kaplan is a man of mystery. Did he write this? No. Was he asked to write this? Yes. But did he write this article? Maybe, do you like it?