Breakaway Takeaways – December 4th

[custom_headline type=”left” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]I Love Your Ohtani Bitterness[/custom_headline][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”1088″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”” style=””][text_output]I love it so much, guys.

Ever since the Houston Astros eliminated the Yankees from the playoffs, all talk has been centered around the team’s pursuit of Japanese two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani. It has long been assumed that the Yankees were the prohibitive front-runners for Ohtani, and fans were already lining up to see his Yankee Stadium debut.

Last night, Ohtani and his representatives narrowed their list of potential suitors from 30 to seven. Not on that list: the Yankees.

Very quickly, Yankee fans became extremely bitter about the entire situation.[/text_output]

[text_output]I eat this shit for breakfast. It’s beautiful.

Mind you, it’s true, nobody ever got famous playing for the Seattle Mariners.

Definitely not Ken Griffey Jr.

Definitely not Ichiro Suzuki.

Definitely not Alex Rodriguez.

Definitely not Randy Johnson.

It’s never happened. Ohtani would somehow be the first to overcome the stigma of playing baseball in the Pacific Northwest. I’m rooting for him.

On a more serious note – my money is on the San Diego Padres emerging as the eventual winner in the Ohtani sweepstakes. The Padres front office boasts a number of former Japanese All-Stars holding prominent positions, including Hideo Nomo, Akinori Otsuka and Takashi Saito. San Diego can easily find a home for Ohtani is their starting outfield and at the top of their rotation, and the team can market Ohtani as their clear-cut star. The Mariners would be my second bet if I wanted to cover my money, but I really do think the Padres are quietly the leader in the clubhouse.

As for the Yankees and their truly bitter fan base, if management is smart (and there’s no reason to think they aren’t), it would be incredibly smart to take the team’s entire $3.5 million international bonus slot money and throw it out shortstop Kevin Maitan. If Ohtani wasn’t available, Maitan would be the only prospect teams would be talking about. Snagging Maitan would still be a massive coup for the team.

But what a week for Yankees/Giants fans. All those years making fun of Mets/Jets fans, and you lose out on Ohtani the same week Eli Manning gets benched for Geno Smith.

Karma never loses, guys. Remember that.

– Greg Kaplan[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h4″ looks_like=”h4″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]First Trimester in the Books[/custom_headline][text_output]The Rangers had a bit of a tumultuous week since the last edition of our Breakaway Takeaways on Monday. The team went 1-1 with a convincing 5-1 victory over Carolina on Friday and a tough 5-4 loss to the Panthers on Tuesday where we all had flashbacks to the Senators playoff series. The big news though for the team came in the form of injuries, as we learned Mike Zibanejad suffered another concussion (and is being reporting to be his 4^th or 5^th lifetime concussion). Mika has been unquestionably one of the Rangers best and most important players this year, so it goes without saying that if he is out for any real length of time, the Rangers are in serious trouble. On the bright side of the injury spectrum, Ryan McDonagh returned from his abdomen injury, and looked like the old Ryan McDonagh again in the game against the Hurricane.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”1091″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]The Rangers are now just about done with the first trimester of the season, and their underlying analytics show that in aggregate across the whole season, they have been a pretty average team overall. When you parse the data by the offensive and defensive-specific metrics on Corsica, you see that the Rangers have been a pretty strong offensive team, but have been awful in their own zone, particularly when you dig into the shot quality-related metrics. In terms of score-adjusted, 5v5 play, the Rangers are 22^nd in the league in shot attempt differential, with a Corsi For % of 48.27%. The team has not fared much better in expected goals for % either (which takes into account shot quantity and quality), posting a 49.11% xGF%, good for 21^st in the NHL. This aligns almost identically with the teams 5v5 actual goal differential of 49.05%, meaning they are almost even in terms of the goals they have scored compared to the goals they have given up at even strength across the entire season.

However, if you look at the amount of expected goals per-60 minutes the Rangers are currently logging, you can see that the strength of this team clearly lies in its offense, at least it has to this point in the season. The Rangers currently sit 3^rd in the NHL in xGF/60 at 2.62, behind only the Blue Jackets and the Maple Leafs. How can a team that is 3^rd in xGF/60 only rank 21^st in expected goals for % you ask? Simple, for as good as they have been at generating high quality scoring chances, they have been even worse at allowing them. In fact, the Rangers have been the worst team in the entire NHL in terms of 5v5, score-adjusted expected goals against per-60, with a xGA/60 of 2.71. For additional reference, the second worst team has been the Ducks, at 2.59, who have been decimated by injuries to both their centers and blue line all year.

With Ryan McDonagh back and looking healthy, and Brendan Smith beginning to play better, I believe the Rangers defensive analytics will trend upwards throughout the rest of the season. That isn’t really a bold prediction, since they can’t really get any worse, but hey for those looking for reason for optimism, you can hang your hat on that. However, if Mike Zibanejad remains out for a prolonged period of time, you can expect the Rangers elite offensive numbers to fall down towards the middle, as Zibanejad has some of the best metrics on the team, and has been a driving force behind the team’s strong numbers. It is important to remind you all that this data is all score-adjusted and 5v5, and the team has shown, when Zibanejad is healthy at least, that the power play is strong enough to carry some level of team success when they are struggling at 5v5. However, history has shown us that you do not want to have to rely on this, and if the Rangers have any hope of making a deep playoff run this year, they need Zibanejad back healthy, and they need to get much better in their own end of the ice.

-Drew Way[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”1094″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””]