The rumblings are coming at a precarious time for the Canadiens, who are seemingly prepared to sell Pacioretty when his stock is at his absolute lowest.
Pacioretty entered the 2017-18 on the heels of four-straight 30+ goals, 60+ point seasons. He has an additional year left on his contract, on a well-below market value deal that carries a cap hit of $4.5 million annually. At 28-years old, we’re currently in the heart of Pacioretty’s prime.
So, why in god’s name would the Canadiens be looking to trade a player of this caliber?
In the minds of the Canadiens brass, Pacioretty is no longer the top line scorer he had been for a team marred in a season-long malaise. The problem with that line of thinking; it’s just not true.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” src=”1413″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]When you eyeball the raw numbers, yes, Pacioretty’s scoring is down across the board. He’s notched just eight goals in his first 39 games this year, and his point-per-game average has dropped sharply from .82 last year to .51 this year.
But as Sean Tierney of Hockey Graphs and The Athletic vividly points out for us in the graph above, it’s not entirely Max Pacioretty’s fault.
Patches has been arguably one of the unluckiest players in the entire league this year, let alone the unluckiest player on the Habs. His -7.92 difference between Expected Goals and Actual Goals is 2nd-worst in the entire league, with only San Jose’s Tomas Hertl coming in lower.
For comparison sake, look at Rick Nash. Nobody on the Rangers has created more high leverage scoring chances that have, for various reasons, not resulted in actual goals. Nash comes in at a -4.23 differential. Pacioretty’s differential is almost unconscionable. If Pacioretty was playing at his expected points rate this year according to Sean Tierney, he’s back to a .72 point-per-game player. A drop off form last year, but it’s important to note that Patches played at a +6 differential last year, meaning he’s on nearly the same expected point-per-game pace from just a year ago.
But, that’s not what the Canadiens want to admit or hear. Instead, they want to shake up what has become a seemingly stagnant core. And that kind of irrational decision-making is something the Rangers should pounce on immediately.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”1415″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Here comes the somewhat uncomfortable part of all this: figuring out what a Rangers trade package looks like for Max Pacioretty.
The Canadiens have sent out word that any deal involving Patches would require a young, offensively-gifted forward coming back in return.
I know I’ve put him in trade scenarios multiple times before, and I swear it’s not because I dislike him as a player at all. It’s always because he’s the Rangers most valuable, yet still movable trade chip.
Any trade the Rangers propose to the Montreal Canadiens is going to include J.T. Miller.
This is an uncomfortable and hard pill for some to swallow. I mean, we’re talking about a forward who is continuing to blossom offensively, posted a 56-point campaign in his age-23 season and is on pace to back up those numbers again this year. He can even slide between winger and center without giving up too much skill and is the exact kind of player you would want to be part of your core moving forward.
But as we’ve talked about multiple times before, the Rangers are nearing a critical crossroads.
Miller, Kevin Hayes and Brady Skjei are all entering restricted free agency after this season (and Jimmy Vesey, too). All three are due massive pay raises from their current salaries, and while the Rangers will likely have enough cap space to lock up all three, it won’t give them much wiggle room to address any other areas of the team. Not to mention, it limits their long-term financial flexibility to address a possible Ryan McDonagh extension, Pavel Buchnevich’s next contract and all but eliminates any thoughts of the Rangers re-signing Rick Nash after this year.
The Rangers will likely have to move one of those three to maintain financial flexibility. Brady Skjei is not going anywhere given his emerging importance to this team defensively (especially if Alain Vigneault hangs around and continues to deploy his system). Even with Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil waiting in the minors, the Rangers center depth is still too shallow to ever considering a competitive line-up without Kevin Hayes anchored in. And honestly, the rate at which Hayes is raising his game as a two-way, top six center, he has more inherent value to the team than Miller can bring.
If the Rangers are put into a position to choose between Hayes and Miller, the answer should be Hayes. And if you’re ever going to consider moving Miller, you would want to acquire someone who is more than just a monthly rental.
Whatever you may feel towards Miller, another hard truth is this: Max Pacioretty is simply better. That’s by no means a knock on J.T. That’s just a truth. Patches is a scoring winger who immediately slots on almost every team’s top line. Miller could one day be a player of a similar caliber, but he’s not that guy right now.
Keeping that in mind, this also obviously means the Rangers have to give up more to get Pacioretty.
Regardless of how AV has handled him ever since he entered the organization, Anthony DeAngelo still maintains trade value, and he’s the second-best prospect currently playing hockey in Hartford. For a team like Montreal, who is bereft of defensive prospect depth and is currently deploying the likes of Jeff Petry and the ghost of Karl Alzner in their top four, a puck-moving offensive defenseman who could possibly take up Shea Weber’s mantle on the power play is of extreme value (or they could’ve found a way to keep Mikhail Sergachev, but I’m not here to play a hindsight game) (or P.K Subban okay I’m done).
For the Rangers to sweeten the pot, they will still likely need to include another prospect and a draft pick. Two of the more intriguing guys the Rangers have stashed away, Tim Gettniger and Ty Ronning, are both nearing ELCs and could make impacts at the NHL level in the near future. Since I have an unwavering love for Ronning, I’d be more willing to trade Gettinger, but both are players the Canadiens would be reasonable to ask for.
Or, the Canadiens could simply ask for a first round pick, but I’d be hesitant on that front as well. A prospect and a second rounder seems like a fair compromise.
Is a year and a half of Max Pacioretty at a $4.5 million cap hit worth J.T. Miller, Anthony DeAngelo, Tim Gettinger and a draft pick? In my mind, yes.
I should add, this is completely independent of Chris Kreider’s health concerns this year. This trade absolutely makes the Rangers better in 2018, but it also gives them a better idea as to what the team will look like in 2018-19, and will allow them the capital to address their needs elsewhere without having to splurge on Rick Nash in free agency or look to add a winger on a mid-market deal in the $2-3 million range. It give the Rangers more mid-term clarity, all while making them a much more dynamic team offensively.
To me, trading for Patches is a no brainer, even when it’s going to cost J.T. Miller.
But is the juice worth the squeeze for Jeff Gorton and company?[/text_output]
Author: Greg Kaplan
Greg Kaplan is a man of mystery. Did he write this? No. Was he asked to write this? Yes. But did he write this article? Maybe, do you like it?