No, he’s not retiring today or getting traded yet. However, it’s time to start thinking about life without Ryan McDonagh.
We have posted about this at some length in this past week’s Breakaway Takeaways. Greg and Ryan talked about it along with guest Karly Redpath on this week’s podcast.
We should start thinking about it, to prepare for our future that life without Ryan McDonagh is a possibility, even if we don’t trade him, there is a good chance we could possibly lose him during free agency after the 2018-2019 regular season ends.
There’s many reasons to move McDonagh. As mentioned above, McDonagh becomes a free agent at the end of the 2018-2019 regular season, so thinking of potential suitors is something to take into consideration. Other reasons make sense from a financial standpoint, as well as a future standpoint. We saw what happened when we re-signed Dan Girardi and Marc Staal to their extensions. Girardi, no longer on the team after being bought out and Staal, a player that’s name should see itself as part of the buyout window this offseason.
Both contracts for these players were bad. Bad because we saw the regression of their play over the end of their previous contracts. Right now, the wear and tear of McDonagh is starting to show. Injuries with McDonagh are slowly starting to pile up, with the abdomen strain and now back spasms sidelining him for short stretches this year. Don’t forget he also has shoulder issues that kept him out for long stretches and that seemingly doesn’t go away as one gets older.
This made me think:
How many more years of decent production are we going to see with our captain?
Brent Seabrook of Chicago is another example of a player who has shown signs of wear and tear. Recently healthy scratched by the Blackhawks, this could be a pattern so he stays fresh, so he stays healthy. This isn’t something that we want to see happen with McDonagh but it is something we need to consider if we end up re-signing him.
We easily could get some decent years in the first one or two years of his contract if he ended up re-signing here. What we could see after that is a sharp decline of a man who has given it 100% night in and night out.
Like I said, injuries have played a big part of his down year. Another thing to consider is previous injuries, the shoulder stuff aside, is the foot injury he had during the Eastern Conference Finals in 2015 against Tampa Bay. Is that affecting him in some way in his skating ability? He has seriously lost a step in his skating ability, mostly his lack of reaction in terms of pivoting and adjust has taken a serious hit this year. Look back on that goal Tom Wilson scored earlier this year with him on the ice as a prime example of this.
Let’s look at some metrics, shall we?
Looking at McDonagh’s stats so far this year, here’s what we’ve seen:[/text_output]
One thing to note, and this has a lot to do with his offensive dip, is the lack of shots he has in 5v5 situations this year. He’s been mindful of being pass first this season. Take note, this attributes for 25 games of the season and again, only in 5v5 situations.
McDonagh has been for his entire career a defensive zone starter for his shift, normally being paired with someone like a Girardi as the teams “shut-down” pair. As years went on with these two, their possession metrics took a hit, where last season, their Corsi as a defensive pair was 43.75% in 5v5 Score & Venue Adjusted metrics according to Natural Stat Trick. McDonagh away from Girardi was 50.31%, a stat worth pointing out as McDonagh was still a good possession defenseman.
So far, this year McDonagh has been primarily paired with Nick Holden and their possession numbers has been 46.16% in 5v5 Score & Venue Adjusted metrics, which has been one of the better consistent pairings, which isn’t saying a lot. We know the defense has been having issues overall this year. One thing I would like to point out is that they have given up 7 high danger goals in all situations, which has been the second lowest, behind the Staal and Brendan Smith pair.
McDonagh has also been partnered with Staal, Smith, Brady Skjei, Kevin Shattenkirk and Steven Kampfer in one form or another this season. While in that short sample with Shattenkirk, they handled the possession battle in 5v5 Score & Venue Adjusted situations at 51.66%. His time with Staal was the worst, where the pairings Corsi was 37.53%.
While we’ve talked about the Rangers defense at length, I won’t bore you with any more of the details about what could have been.
So, what is McDonagh worth?
By all points, McDonagh is a number one defenseman. Looking at the Hero Charts done by Domenic Galmini Jr., it proves the point:[/text_output]
If Rangers management was smart, they’d go and ask for draft picks, a roster player, and a mid-level prospect.
The Rangers need to start retooling within the draft, and try to recoup as many high round draft picks that they can acquire. The Rangers cannot make the same mistake that they made with Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta where while they did get a high first round draft pick, they did not recoup a roster player to make an immediate impact. Though you could argue that Anthony DeAngelo is a roster player anywhere else in the NHL, that is here nor there.
The Rangers though, would be fine on defense (as long as the Rangers have a new coach behind the bench), besides DeAngelo, Ryan Graves and Neil Pionk are down in the AHL, looking quite strong for the Hartford Wolfpack. Not saying they’d step up and play in McDonagh’s role, as we’d probably would have Skjei or Shattenkirk going into that role. To say that the Rangers are weak defensively when it comes to prospects, is a pretty weak argument for not wanting to trade McDonagh.
Now, looking at a report done by Chris Nicols on Fanrag Sports recapping a visit from Bob McKenzie on NBCSN, McKenzie stated that while the Rangers are not committed to trading Ryan McDonagh, you can’t forget what the Rangers did during the offseason with Stepan and Girardi.
At the 27:37 mark of this weeks 31 Thoughts Podcast, Elliotte Friedman doubled down on his comments about the possibility of a trade, saying that they’ll listen but doesn’t mean that they’ll do it. Echoing comments that McKenzie said during his visit on NBCSN during Wednesday Night Rivalry.
Now, there is no reason to panic, he’s not getting traded today, nor is he getting traded in a week from now. Trading this type of player so deep into the season is incredibly unlikely.
His name is being floated around, so it’s worth considering what kind of return he would get if indeed the New York Rangers traded him.[/text_output]
Author: Shawn Taggart
Shawn Taggart is a New York Ranger fan, who loves to dive in to the statistical side of hockey.
Besides watching the Rangers, he watches the Yankees, Knicks and Giants and has this strange obession with finding some really good obscure craft beers. Loyal listener of music.