Tony DeAngelo – A Reason for Optimism

[text_output]Tony DeAngelo has been a polarizing figure among New York Ranger fans this season, and that is probably putting it lightly. Between his overtly conservative political opinions, his multiple suspensions, which includes one for directing a homophobic slur at his own Sarnia Sting teammate, and the expectations that come with being a key piece in a highly scrutinized offseason trade that sent Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta to the Arizona Coyotes, the opinions on DeAngelo run the gamut.

Its very evident that even some fans that are usually very level-headed and unbiased are letting these issues seep into their analysis on DeAngelo the player, and this is on full display with the level of reaction generated when he commits a mistake on the ice, relative to other young players that are still finding their way. I can’t necessarily say I blame some fans for this, and DeAngelo certainly deserves all of the criticism he receives for the suspensions he received during his time in the NHL and CHL. However, for the sake of this discussion, let’s leave these issues to the side, and instead focus exclusively on his on-ice performance since joining the New York Rangers in the offseason.

Long story short, Tony DeAngelo’s on-ice results so far this season should be considered reason for optimism amongst Ranger fans, particularly when you examine his play since his recent recall from Hartford.

On a tangentially-related note, I do want to quickly note that I have also been impressed by the play of Neal Pionk and John Gilmour, and I’d highly recommend all Ranger fans check out this recent piece by Brandon Fitzpatrick of the Gotham Sports Network on the impressive early play of Gilmour. Also, while I’m plugging extra things to read, I should mention that this piece includes a number of advanced stats, which have a tooltip definition that quickly define them if you hover-over the term. If you’d like a more thorough explanation of a term, please refer to my Hockey Lexicon, which provides full definitions, layman’s terms explanations and usage examples for most of the advanced stats.

Back to the topic at hand; the on-ice results produced by Tony DeAngelo this season have not only just been the best amongst the trio of recent Hartford-callup defenseman, but they have been some of the best among all defenders on the team. Since his callup from Hartford on January 19, he has played in 11 total games, over which he accumulated an average of 17:27 minutes of ice time per-night.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”2218″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]According to data provided by Natural Stat Trick, DeAngelo posted a positive relative Corsi for % (relCF%) in 8 of these 11 games during 5v5 play, meaning that in all but 2 games since his recent recall from the AHL, the Rangers have posted a higher shot share rate at 5v5 with DeAngelo on the ice compared to when he is off the ice. Furthermore, in five of these games, he posted a relCF% of at least +9%, meaning that the team CF% was at least 9 percentage points higher when he was on the ice compared to off in nearly half of the games he has played in since his callup.

Not a fan of Corsi as a tool for measuring team or player success? That’s fine, let’s take a look at the impact he has on the team in terms of generating high danger scoring chances during 5v5 play instead. In the 11 games since his recent callup, DeAngelo has a positive relative high danger scoring chances for % (relHDCF%) in all but two games, and has posted a relHDCF% of at least +20% in 6 of those games. In layman’s terms, DeAngelo has had a borderline dominant impact in the rate at which the Rangers generate high danger scoring chances compared to their opponent in 5v5 play when DeAngelo is on the ice.

For context, Brady Skjei has had a positive relHDCF% in just five of these 11 games. It should most certainly be noted that Tony DeAngelo has been sheltered by Alain Vigneault during his recent stint on the team. DeAngelo has taken at least 50% of his zone starts from the offensive zone in 10 of these 11 games, compared to only 6 by Brady Skjei. Skjei also has been more frequently tasked with defending against the opponents top lines compared to DeAngelo, particularly in the past few games with McDonagh shelved. This sort of sheltering will for sure positively impact DeAngelo’s numbers relative to Skjei, but it is still worthy of pointing out to help provide context to just how impressive DeAngelo has been in the role he’s been tasked with.

The eye test for DeAngelo has also been impressive. Sure, he has made some errors, some of which have been particularly egregious (like when he got turned inside out by Tim Schaller in the Bruins game) but that isn’t uncommon for a young defenseman, particularly one as offensively inclined as DeAngelo who also is often relied upon to help the team exit their own zone and enter the opposition’s zone. Having the puck on your stick the amount of time that DeAngelo does simply means there are more opportunities for mistakes. Does he have to clean up his game? Of course, he’s only 22 years-old and that will come with time. But for every gaffe he has made, he has also made numerous strong defensive plays.

The play in the gif below, courtesy of Brandon Fitzpatrick, shows a very nice defensive play by DeAngelo against the Winnipeg Jets. The very quick and dangerous Nikolaj Ehlers gets the puck off of a stretch pass with a full head of steam, and has a step on DeAngelo. DeAngelo is skating forward to catch up, so Ehlers attempts to deke around him, which would’ve led to a wide open look on Lundqvist. However, DeAngelo is able to get his stick on the puck just as Ehlers goes for the deke, and then he quickly pivots to get in proper defending position, placing himself in between his goalie and Ehlers. While doing this, he is able to again knock the puck, gain control of it, and quickly get it out of harms way.[/text_output]

[text_output]Even when you look at the season as a whole, DeAngelo still has put up relatively impressive numbers. According to Corsica, among Rangers defenseman that have logged at least 50 minutes of 5v5 ice time, DeAngelo has the second best 5v5 Game Score per-60 at 0.68, behind only Ryan McDonagh’s 0.69. For context, Brady Skjei is third on the team with a 0.47. When you look at his game score per-60 across all situations, he leads all Rangers defenseman with a 1.19, just ahead of Ryan McDonagh and Kevin Shattenkirk, both of whom sit at 1.12. For those unfamiliar, Game Score is a catch-all statistic created by noted hockey statistician and The Athletic writer Dom Luszczyszyn, that measures single game productivity and quantifies the overall value a player brought to a game. In other words, Tony DeAngelo on average has been the second best defenseman on the Rangers during the games he has played in terms of overall performance.

Looking at more “traditional” advanced stats that measure shot share and scoring quality, DeAngelo also has been impressive relative to his teammates. He is the only defenseman on the entire team with a 5v5 Corsi for % north of 50%, and currently sits at 50.32%; this drops to 46.78% when adjusted for the score of the game, which still leads the team pathetically enough. DeAngelo also leads all Rangers defenseman in score-adjusted 5v5 relative Corsi for % (3.9), relative Fenwick for % (5.22), relative shots for % (2.46) and relative expected goals for % (3.7). In layman’s terms, Tony DeAngelo has had the strongest positive impact of any Rangers defenseman when you examine how much better the team performs across numerous shot and shot quality metrics when he is on the ice compared to off.

His standard counting stats don’t look as impressive at the surface, but once you dig into them a bit, they are still somewhat good. He has posted 0 goals and 5 assists over his 19 games this year across all situations, including 4 primary assists. While that does not sound impressive, when you examine his rate production, he is third on the team among defenseman in points per-60 at 1.02 (behind Shattenkirk and McDonagh), and second to only Shattenkirk in primary points per-60 at 0.82. These numbers do drop dramatically however when you strip out his power play production, as he only has a single primary assist on the season during 5v5 play and overall and primary point rates of 0.25 per-60 each. For reference, Ryan McDonagh leads the team in 5v5 total and primary point rates of 0.9 and 0.49, respectively.

Again, I will restate what I mentioned earlier; DeAngelo’s deployment does certainly have a positive effect on his numbers. However, even when you account for his deployment, DeAngelo’s his on-ice results have still been impressive relative to his teammates.

Below is the player usage chart for the Rangers this season (courtesy of Rob Vollman). I provide a full breakdown for how to use and interpret these charts in my Hockey Lexicon, but here is a quick recap. The x-axis charts the offensive deployment of each player; the further to the right the player appears, the higher their offensive zone start percentage is. The y-axis charts the quality of competition the player faces on average; the higher a player appears, the stronger the competition he typically faces is. The size of the circles represent the time on ice per-game that each player receives; the larger the circle, the more ice time the player receives. The color designates the player’s relative Corsi for %, with dark blue indicating a strong relative Corsi for %, and dark red indicating a very poor relative Corsi for %.

As you can see, Tony DeAngelo is the furthest to the right of anyone on the graph, indicating that he has the highest offensive zone deployment on the team among players with at least 10 games played. His placement is also just south of the x-axis, indicating that he faces relatively weak average competition, but not nearly as weak as some of the bottom line forwards. His circle is slightly below average sized, meaning he gets below average playing time, but it is shaded deep blue, meaning he has a very strong relative Corsi for %. When you hover-over his circle, it reveals a little window listing his exact numbers, along with his role based on these deployment and production metrics. Vollman’s interactive player usage chart labels DeAngelo as an “effective top-four puck moving defenseman.”[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” link=”true” target=”blank” info=”tooltip” info_place=”bottom” info_trigger=”hover” src=”2220″ alt=”” href=”http://www.hockeyabstract.com/playerusagecharts” title=”Player Usage Charts Courtesy of Rob Vollman” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]That line, my friends, is the key. All of the data backs it up, as does my eye test for the majority of the games he has played since being recalled from Hartford. Does Tony DeAngelo have a lot of growing up to do? Absolutely. Do you have to like him? Absolutely not. Is he going to be the next Sergei Zubov? Highly unlikely. However, Tony DeAngelo, at age 22, has been a sheltered, right-handed “effective top-four puck moving defenseman,” and that should give plenty of fans reason for optimism going forward.[/text_output]