Our writers Drew Way and Nick Peritz have very differing opinions on the values that both players bring to the Rangers, and therefore have conflicting views on which player the Rangers would be better off dealing if the team decided to move one of them. Drew and Nick banter the pros and cons of moving each below, and you can be the judge of who won this debate. As a bit of a disclaimer, we fully recognize that blood clot issues are a serious manner, and individuals recover from these issues at very different paces. We do not mean to downplay the potential severity of the issues Kreider is facing, but for the purposes of this discussion, we are assuming that Kreider will be able to make a full recovery on the most recent timeline that has been issued by the team.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”2238″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Nick – There are pros and cons to moving on from both J.T. and CK20; however, I feel it’d be pretty foolish to trade a guy like Millzy. Moving on from Miller (24 soon to be 25 in March) is a move I don’t necessarily get because he’s one guy who I don’t think we’ve seen his ceiling yet as a pro player. As only having three seasons under his belt as an NHL player he’s already recorded 50 points once and has already had a 40 point season under his belt as well. J.T. also provides something that a lot of guys on the Rangers already don’t possess, the ability to play all three forward spots up front. I know what many of you are going to say, J.T.’s versatility as a forward is something that’ll make him even more of a valuable trade asset. While I’d agree with that, having a versatile forward up front is something that can be very useful for a team that’s about to become knee deep in a rebuild. While J.T. has his defensive deficiencies, his upside far outweighs his downside in terms of what he can still bring to the Rangers while being on the roster.
Talking about trading Chris Kreider is pretty difficult for me, especially because of what he’s had to endure off the ice this season with the blood clot. Kreider is extremely blessed that he’s going to be able to get back to playing the game he loves. However when talking about moving on or keeping Kreider, I feel it’d be more beneficial to the long-term future of the Blueshirts to move on from Kreids. At 26 and soon to be 27, Kreider can still get quite the package from a team, perhaps the Ducks, because he is still recognized by many as a talented power forward. I think we’ve seen the best of Chris Kreider in NY that we’ll possibly ever get. He’s been a good playoff performer, last year aside, and he’s also played well in the regular season. However, I’ll argue that he never reached the potential many envisioned when the Rangers drafted him 19th overall in the 2009 draft. After Kreider was drafted, many envisioned him being one of the more dominate power forwards in the NHL. While he’s played well, he’s never quite reached that upper echelon of wingers in the NHL. Maybe the biggest issue some fans have with him is the fact that he possesses all of the attributes needed physically to just dominate games and we don’t get that from him on a consistent basis.
With the team heading towards their rebuild it just makes too much sense to trade a 26 year old scorer than it does to trade a 24 year playmaker with versatile ability forward wise. Kreider while being a solid NHL player is virtually a one trick pony. If he’s not scoring goals he can’t give you too much else offensively. He’s never going to be 55-60 point player because he doesn’t have the playmaking ability to make that happen. Miller, if he’s not scoring goals, he can still set up his linemates because he has great vision of the ice at all times. If you’re asking me which guy it makes more sense to hold on to for a rebuilding team, I’ll take versatile playmaker over one trick pony every single time.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” src=”2239″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Drew – Ok, there is a lot to unpack here, so let’s go point-by-point. I will start by saying that Nick, you do raise a lot of good points, and there are for sure pros and cons to trading both Miller and Kreider. However, that is about where our agreement on the topic ends. Sure, trading a guy like Miller could be deemed a bit “foolish” for some of the reasons you pointed out. But do you know what would be even more foolish? Trading a player that is just flat out better, and only two years older, in Chris Kreider.
To your first point about J.T. Miller’s upside, I would strongly argue that we have more or less already seen his peak, offensively at least. There have been numerous comprehensive studies analyzing the aging curves of NHL players, and multiple studies have independently concluded that your average NHL forward peaks offensively around the age of 25. In fact, noted hockey statistician Luke Solberg (better known as EvolvingWild) wrote a two-part article on Hockey-Graphs where he took a new approach to hockey aging curves, and used WAR as the baseline metric instead of goals or points (which were used in previous studies). In his conclusion, he stated that, “…this WAR model, for the most part, lines up with the generally held belief that skaters peak around 24-25 years old and decline gradually after that.” So, studies that have analyzing player aging curves based on points, goals and WAR all concluded the same thing; hockey players usually peak around age 25 or so.
Could J.T. Miller be an exception, and still be progressing? Sure. But I’m not making a trade decision if a large premise to the decision is that my player is an exception to the rule. And yea, Kreider being older obviously means he is likely further away from his “peak,” but as I stated already, he is just a flat out better player than J.T. Miller. Don’t believe me? Check out the massive article I wrote at the start of the season that shared over 70 different stats demonstrating how last year Chris Kreider was COMFORTABLY one of the best, if not the best, forward on the entire team.
Another very key point in this discussion to me is contracts. Chris Kreider, whom is undoubtedly one of the best forwards on the Rangers, is just about the only forward they have who provides any sort of real net-front presence, and whom was in the argument for being a top-30 winger in the entire NHL at the start of the season, is currently inked to a very reasonable $4.65 AAV that will bring him through the 2019-2020 season. J.T. Miller is an impending RFA with arbitration rights, and all of the stats you provided on J.T. Miller indicate that he comfortably will command a contract north of $5 million per year. Players of similar ages and production levels that recently signed new deals as an RFA include Tomas Tatar, Brayden Schenn and Mike Hoffman, all of whom obtained contracts of four years with a cap hit of over $5.1 million per. So now not only is J.T. Miller the inferior player to Kreider, but he will also very likely be making more money.
Lastly, I want to address your comment referring to Kreider as a one trick pony. I literally couldn’t disagree with this assessment more if I tried. Further, I think if any of these players is a one trick pony, it is most certainly Miller (although for the record, I wouldn’t classify him as such). Below, I’ve created a little chart that lists a number of key characteristics and stats that people look for in well-rounded hockey players, and the bolded stat indicated the player whom is better at each between Kreider and Miller. As you can see, Kreider has the advantage over Miller in FAR more areas of the game, and Miller’s only true advantages are the fact that he can play center in a pinch, and he is a better playmaker. Kreider however, is a better scorer, better at driving possession, better at generating high quality scoring changes, better defensively and more physical. The numbers don’t lie, Chris Kreider is a much more well-rounded player than J.T. Miller. All data spans the current and 2016-2017 seasons, is courtesy of Corsica, and all shot and scoring chance data is score-adjusted, 5v5 (this includes the Game Score metric).[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2240″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2242″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Nick – While your point on J.T.’s next contract with the Rangers being pricier than what we have Kreider for right now, I’d say J.T. is more than worth signing to a 5-year extension at about 5 or 5.25 million AAV. Also any extension that J.T. gets that people could criticize as being “hefty” could be blamed on the Rangers front office and their infatuation over the years with bridge contracts instead of going long on their young talent like many other teams have done. In recent memory the only young player that the Blueshirts have gone long on, and deservedly so, were Zibanejad and McDonagh. Mika’s contract is still to fresh to really comment on, but with McDonagh, the Rangers were able to lock him up and get his most productive years at a bargain basement price. Two years ago, I was pining for Gorton to do the same with Miller instead of going short and doing the proverbial “show me” deal. And even if the Rangers have to pay J.T. 5.1-5.25 on an AAV, I’d argue that in the current state of the NHL it’s not a bad contract for a versatile winger that can kick in 50 points.
I also love that you went the statistical route with your defense of Kreider because as much I might hate to do it right now, I’ll go the old man route in defending Miller. After all, they say styles do make fights, right?
I could argue that Kreider’s production is in large part due to his linemates that he’s had over the years. Playing with guys like Zibanejad, Buchnevich, this season until his (Kreider’s) injury, and in years past guys like Nash and Zuccarello, have afforded Kreider a lot of open ice to work with and he hasn’t been forced to produce a lot of his own looks. Miller hasn’t been quite as fortunate. Miller has played with Kevin Hayes, but that has been sparingly at points due to how AV has viewed Miller as a human yo-yo at times. Miller can be seen as a Rangers bouncing from the 2nd line all the way down to the 4th line and even with that Miller has produced at quite a productive rate. Sometimes it isn’t so easy to play with Tanner Glass. If you don’t believe me, go ask Buch. Also just using the eye test, which is not always my favorite thing to do but I do trust it, Miller is far more noticeable most nights than Kreider. Could be unfair of me to say but I’ve consistently noticed with Kreider that there are nights where he takes far too many shifts off. With the physical attributes that CK20 has at his disposal, he should be noticeable on nearly every shift he takes. Far too many nights watching him I’ve been left wanting more out of his game. I’d really like to see how J.T. could produce if he were given more consistent top six minutes and see if his underlying numbers would bump up and get into Kreider’s range. I’m sure you’d definitely be able to help all of us there, Drew.
In a perfect world the Rangers could hold onto both of these guys during this rebuild. However, tough times and decisions are coming to the corner of 33rd and 7th in the coming days and for once, I’d love if a player proved me right in defending him.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2243″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Drew – Ok, here we find a lot more common ground. I agree with you that Miller would be worth that sort on contract, and that in part is one of the reasons why I think he does hold a lot of trade value. A handful of teams would gladly fork over a 4-6 year deal between $5-$5.5 million per-season for a player of J.T. Miller’s caliber. My point in bringing up the contract was merely as a comparison to Kreider, and Kreider is on a cheaper deal for the next couple of seasons than Miller (likely) will be on.
You comments on the eye test compared to the comments I am about to make I think serve as a perfect microcosm for why the eye test is flawed. Don’t get me wrong, the eye test is extremely important in player and team analysis, and I believe you need traditional scouting (aka the eye test) as well as analytics to gain a full picture of a player or team. However, arguably the biggest problem with the eye test is that humans are very subjective beings, and by our nature we are very prone to confirmation bias. I can’t deny that Kreider appears to take nights off, and that with his physical gifts he should be able to be more consistently dominant. However, with my eye test at least, J.T. Miller takes just as many shifts off and nights off as Kreider. In my opinion, what’s going on here is the fact that when Kreider is 100% locked in, he dominates the game in a way that J.T. Miller is not capable of; in other words, his best is better than Miller’s best. Because of this, it is far more noticeable when Kreider mails in a shift than when Miller does. From what I’ve personally witnessed however, they both can be a bit frustrating with their lack of consistency at times, and so I would mark that as a negative in both of their columns.
Lastly, you bring up player roles, usage and quality of teammates, and this is something I very much can sink my teeth into. There is no denying that Kreider has played with better teammates. However, playing on the top line means that Kreider also consistently goes up against stiffer competition, which at least partially mitigates the impact of playing with better players. While Kreider gets to more often play with the Rangers top-line players than Miller does, he also has to face the likes of Victor Hedman, P.K. Subban, Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson and other blue chip defenseman more often than Miller.
Further, when you dig down into the WOWY data and charts, it becomes apparent that Kreider’s linemates over the past few seasons have benefits at least as much from playing with Kreider, as Kreider benefited from playing with them. The chart below is the WOWY analysis chart for Chris Kreider’s 2017-2018 season, and it is from Micah Blake McCurdy’s fantastic hockey site HockeyViz, where fans can access all sorts of great analytics and charts. For a full breakdown of how to read and use these charts, please check out the WOWY section of my Hockey Lexicon (yes, I will find a way to plug this thing in nearly everything I write lol). To quickly summarize it though, he y-axis depicts shot attempts against (inverted), while the x-axis shows shot attempts for. The further up you look on the graph, the less shot attempts against occur while the pair is on the ice, and the further to the right you go, the more shot attempts for. In other words, top-right = good, bottom-right = shots for everyone, bottom-left = bad and top-left = shot attempts for nobody.
The black boxes represent how the player whose jersey number is listed within the box performs with Kreider, the red boxes depict the player without Kreider, and the blue boxes illustrate how Mike does without the player. The legend to the right lists the amount of time the player has played with and without Kreider, and how much time Kreider has played without the player. A player needs to have played 73 minutes at 5v5 with Kreider in order to be included in the chart.
As you can see, the black boxes (indicating the player with Chris Kreider) and the blue boxes (Kreider without the player) are almost all up and to the right of the red boxes (the player without Kreider). In other words, most of the players depicted in this chart see increases in their performance (as measured by shot attempts) with Kreider on the ice with them. Further, Kreider’s numbers without the player are typically stronger than the player’s numbers without Kreider. You can add all of this up and conclude that Chris Kreider most certainly has a positive impact on the players he shares the ice with.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” link=”true” target=”blank” info=”tooltip” info_place=”bottom” info_trigger=”hover” src=”2247″ alt=”” href=”https://www.patreon.com/hockeyviz/posts” title=”Chart Courtesy of Micah Blake McCurdy’s HockeyViz Website” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]For comparison’s sake, lets take a look at J.T. Miller’s WOWY chart for this season. The results here are much less conclusive, as there is a big cluster in the middle containing red, blue and black boxes, with outlier black boxes above and beneath the cluster. In other words, J.T. Miller has a much less consistently positive impact on his teammates that share the ice with him than Kreider does.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” link=”true” target=”blank” info=”tooltip” info_place=”bottom” info_trigger=”hover” src=”2249″ alt=”” href=”https://www.patreon.com/hockeyviz/posts” title=”Chart Courtesy of Micah Blake McCurdy’s HockeyViz Website” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]With all of this said, I agree with your premise Nick that, in an ideal world, the Rangers would be able to easily re-sign both of these relatively young and talented forwards that they have drafted and developed, while also having room to make the additional off-season maneuvers they desire. Unfortunately, even with the likes of Nash coming off the books and the cap rising a projected $3-$7 million, the Rangers very well may find themselves in a scenario where trading a J.T. Miller, Chris Kreider or Kevin Hayes is best for the team. If this scenario does arise, I am steadfast in my belief that J.T. Miller should be the name the Rangers should look to sell, as I believe he would retrieve a very nice return, and for all the reasons I outlined above.[/text_output]
Author: Drew Way
Diehard New York Rangers fan since 1988! Always has been fascinated by sports statistics, and is a big proponent of supplementing analytics with the eye test. Also a big Yankees, Giants and Knicks fan.