The soon-to-be free agent is heading to the other side of the Hudson River, taking his talents to the New Jersey Devils, who have jump-started their own rebuild with a much quicker timetable than anyone would’ve expected.
In return, the Rangers nab 20-year old defensive prospect Yegor Rykov, who is currently applying his trade in the KHL with SKA St. Petersburg, and a second round pick.
There’s a lot to digest here, so let’s get to digesting.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=”” src=”2264″][text_output]I think before we get into the dirty details, let’s reflect a little on Grabner’s one and a half years in New York.
You could not have asked for more from Grabner while he was here. When the Rangers signed Grabner, the expectation was for Grabs to provide some offensive upside on the fourth line and give the team a solid penalty kill option.
All Grabner did was produce goals on goals, becoming one of the more productive scorers the Rangers have had over the last two years. We spent many a-podcast last year discussing if management should try to flip Grabner at last year’s deadline, thinking there was no way his value could grow any higher, and became fearful the Golden Knights would snatch him up during the expansion draft without the Rangers getting anything in return.
Not only did Vegas decide to forgo selecting Grabner, but all he did was continue his torrid scoring pace this season at even strength. We were all expecting, at some point, for the goals to dry up, for Grabner to transform back into nothing more than a depth forward with speed and penalty kill upside. It just never happened. Grabner kept producing, kept being one of the main cogs of the Rangers attack and never let up. He deserves all the credit in the world.
Now, for what this trade means for the Rangers here and now:
This wasn’t just a move the Rangers had to make, but likely the best you could hope for in return. The positives about Grabner are all there; the cheap cap hit, the high-upside offense, the penalty killing. It created a bit of a bidding war for his services, which drove up his price on the open market.
Some fans may have been expecting a first round pick in return for the Rangers, or a better prospect, but I don’t think those are realistic asks. Grabner, for as good as he has been, is still a rental. A very good rental, but still just a rental. He’s not on the same all-around level as a Rick Nash, Evander Kane or Max Pacioretty (Patches has that extra year of control, so he doesn’t really apply). He’s a talented, middle-six winger who will absolutely help a playoff team, but he’s going to be in Jersey for three months. That price has a cap.
Maybe the Rangers could’ve gotten a first round pick. But the thing is, the difference in true value between a late first round pick and a middle second round pick is minor. The first round pick has some biased flair attached to it because it has the word first in it.
Say the Rangers flipped Grabner to the St. Louis Blues instead, who will be picking somewhere in that 25-30 window. That’s all fine and good, but the actual value of the 25th overall draft pick isn’t entirely different from the value of the 50th overall draft pick. You’re getting to a point in the draft where you’re taking a guy your scouts are high on, and someone you like isn’t the same as someone other teams in the NHL like (see: Chytil, Filip). I’m not trying to suggest that picking 20 spots later in the draft is actually more advantageous. I’m saying once you’re outside the top 10, you’re relying on your scouts to correctly identify who the best player available is to draft. The goal is to give your scouts the most opportunities to nail their pick, so you want to stockpile.
Scott Cullen of TSN wrote an excellent article over the summer that tackled this very topic of draft pick value and outcomes. Let’s use the examples I outlined above and the data in his piece to highlight the actual values of each draft slot. According to his research, the 25th overall pick has about a 54% chance to play 100 games in the NHL, and on average turns out to be a “fringe NHLer.” I’d bet a lot of money that is significantly lower than most fans would have guessed. By comparison, the 50th overall pick, which is a reasonable outcome of this Devils pick the Rangers just acquired, has a 34% chance of playing 100 NHL games, and on average turns out to be a “very good minor league player.” Now, obviously this is worse than the 25th pick, but to my point, both in essence are lottery picks, and the 25th pick is far from a sure thing.
Grabbing that second round on top of a prospect who, if available in this year’s draft, would likely grade out as a late-first round draft pick, you’re giving your scouting department more opportunities to hit. If Yegor Rykov’s name wasn’t Yegor Rykov but instead First Round Draft Pick, you’d be over the moon over a deal involving Grabner for two high-end draft choices.
And about Rykov – I’m not here to make definitive statements. I haven’t watched SKA religiously, and I never will. But people I trust, like Josh Khalfin and Alex Nunn, are both cautiously optimistic about his prospect status. There’s value in a 20-year old who has been able to carve out an important role with arguably the best team in Russia. People much smarter than I have made comparisons to Dmitry Orlov, which would be absolutely fantastic if that happens. Not to suggest it will, just that it gives fans something to dream about.
I take issue with anyone calling this trade a “loss” for the Rangers. For starters, it’s impossible to judge a trade as a win or loss this quickly after it happens. Maybe wait for what the Rangers do with the second round pick? Or wait until Rykov comes over from Russia?
The Rangers got what they feel is the best possible offer for Grabner, and honestly, they did extremely well in that department.
They also made sure to trade Grabner before Rick Nash. We talked about this after the Holden deal, but it’s important enough to bring up one more time. Grabner sets a bare minimum bar for what the Nash trade expectation is. It always seemed hard to believe the Rangers wouldn’t be able to snag a first round pick and a very good prospect for Nash’s services, but now it’s seemingly guaranteed.
The next few days are going to be insane. Nash and McDonagh are still very much in play, and if the Rangers wanted to, they could end up with three first round picks next year (and three new top prospects). It’s both exciting and a bit depressing. But this is the situation we’ve found ourselves in this year.
Let’s see where it goes.[/text_output]
Author: Greg Kaplan
Greg Kaplan is a man of mystery. Did he write this? No. Was he asked to write this? Yes. But did he write this article? Maybe, do you like it?