However, after they calm down from the initial outrage of the pick, they see on Twitter that a number of prospect analysts are making comments like, “the player was my 18th ranked skater, but honestly there was very little separation between 11 and 19 on my board, I have them all on the same tier.” This, my friends, is why standard numbered rankings can be misleading. In this hypothetical scenario, if the rankings the fans were using organized the prospects into tiers, perhaps a number of them could’ve been spared from their initial outrage, knowing that in fact very little separates the player their team chose and the player they originally had their hearts set on. Of course, some people just like to be angry… Hey, you all are entitled to root for your team however you want, so if getting angry is a cathartic fan experience for you, by all means, go nuts!
The point is, organizing prospect rankings into tiers can add valuable context to a set of rankings. Well, fortunately for you all, Blueshirts Breakaway has your backs! In this piece, Drew Way, Shawn Taggart and George Obremski update their initial first-round ranks, extend the ranks to two rounds, and organize the prospects into consensus tiers. Each writer also discusses some items that they personally differ on from the consensus website tiers to provide more insight into their personal rankings and analysis, and discuss some off-the-board prospects they think you should be aware of. For full disclosure, there were a couple of instances where one writer felt strongly about placing a player in a different tier than they ended up in; in these instances, the writer explains their thoughts on the player and how they personally value them below.
Here are our tiered 2018 NHL Draft rankings. The list is presented in the order of the Blueshirts Breakaway aggregate ranks (BSB Rank column), but we have also listed the individual rankings for each writer. In our opinion, the players listed within the same tier have very little separation between one another. While we have ranked all players in order, and we do have personal preferences for one player over another, we do not perceive there to be much separation at all between the prospects ranked within the same tier as one another.
Lastly, prospect evaluation is far from an exact science. If you disagree with our ranks, or you’d like to have a discussion about why we made some of the decisions we made, please feel free to hit us up on Twitter or engage in the comments section of the article.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”2562″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][custom_headline type=”center” level=”h5″ looks_like=”h5″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Some Differences of Opinion[/custom_headline][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Drew Way[/custom_headline][text_output]To be completely honest, I was surprised by how much Shawn, George and myself agreed on things, especially with the second-round portion of our rankings. However, there were still a few items that I disagreed with, and inevitably lost when it came to creating our consensus ranks.
First, in my own personal tiered ranks, I had Svechnikov and Zadina on tiers of their own at two and three. While I agree with all the fantastic things that analysts say about Zadina, I just don’t think he’s on the same level as Svechnikov. This isn’t a knock on Zadina in the least, so please don’t take it that way, I just think that Svechnikov is a truly special player, who would be in the conversation for first in most other drafts. In fact, while I don’t necessarily agree, I completely understand why some analysts that I very much trust (most notably Nick Mercadante and Steve Kournianos) have Svechnikov ranked over Dahlin.
Svechnikov could play in the NHL right now. He has the size, intelligence, skills and strength to make an impact on most NHL teams at this very moment. In my opinion, his ceiling is second only to Dahlin’s, and his floor is just as high as anyone’s in the draft. He’s currently listed at 6’ 2’’ and about 190lbs, is a lefty shot and is coming off of a near-historic season in the OHL that saw him average 0.68 goals at 5v5 play per game. For context, according to Steve Kournianos in this recent article, that is the highest 5v5 goals-per-game figure in the OHL over the past 20 years. Steve notes, “neither McDavid, nor Kane, nor Taylor Hall, nor Steven Stamkos, nor John Tavares buried the puck at a greater clip than Svechnikov.”
Being a top-caliber prospect is about more than just scoring goals of course, and Svechnikov legitimately has no real holes to his game. He’s defensively responsible, especially for a prospect with his offensive chops, he’s strong for his build and has a frame that should enable him to get even stronger, he sees the ice well and has a high hockey IQ, is a strong playmaker, has elite-level hands, a lethal shot and is an above average and well-rounded skater. This time last year, many prospect analysts, including Jeff Marek, thought that the number one pick would come down to Rasmus Dahlin or Andrei Svechnikov, meaning that for a while, the two players were viewed to be on the same level. While I am in agreement that Dahlin separated himself a bit, I do think that Svechnikov should be considered to be on a tier of his own at two, and I think that, while Zadina is also a fantastic prospect, that the analysts that have him over Svechnikov are likely putting too much emphasis on the World Junior tournament play, and not enough emphasis on the entire bodies of work of both players.[/text_output]
I wrote about Kotkaniemi in our initial first-round ranks (which occurred before the most recent U18 tournament, where Kotkaniemi and his teammate Niklas Nordgren truly shinned in bringing home the gold for Finland). To quickly summarize, I believe Kotkaniemi is a well-rounded and extremely versatile prospect, and one whose complete game reminds me a bit of Anze Kopitar. He’s an extremely smart player who plays a great two-way game, is a good skater for his size (6’ 2’’. 190 lbs), is a good playmaker, has a sneaky good shot and has plus hands and stick handling ability. While he might not possess the dynamic ability of some other in the top-10 of this draft, his well-rounded game and the production he has put up in the Finnish pro league as a U18 should translate incredibly well to the NHL, and I have no doubt that, barring injury, he will have a long career as at least a reliable top-6 forward that can play in any and all game situations.
Now we get to my boy, Ty Smith. After much internal debate, I settled at having Ty Smith at eighth in my rankings. For full disclosure, I came to this conclusion literally the day before publishing this piece, and I was very torn between placing him anywhere from 8-11. Point is though, I have Ty Smith firmly entrenched in the tier with the likes of Evan Bouchard, Brady Tkachuk, Noah Dobson and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Honestly, I have probably watched Ty Smith more than any other prospect in this class (mainly because I’m constantly advocating for him on Twitter and in the Blueshirts Breakaway Discord channel), and I can’t help but see a lot of Ryan Ellis in Ty Smith’s game, but with more dynamic skating ability. I love Ryan Ellis, and for my money he’s one of the 20 best defensemen in the NHL, so me saying that Smith reminds me of a Ryan Ellis but with better skating, is extremely high praise.
The reason for this comparison goes beyond the fact that both players are listed at 5’ 10’’ (some sources have either as 5’ 11’’ for the record). Like Ellis, Ty Smith is a very good one-on-one defender, particularly for his relatively small stature, and he plays a smart two-way game, with excellent offensive upside and very smart decision making, especially in terms of picking his spots to join the rush. Smith is also a phenomenal skater, and not just in terms of top-end speed. Smith is the complete package in terms of skating ability; while he does have great top-end speed, he also has good balance, can pivot on a dime and can accelerate very quickly. He also has good hands, a strong and accurate shot, and good handle, all of which lead to him being a true three-zone player that can play in all situations. On top of all of this, Smith is known as a player with strong leadership qualities and high character, leading to him being named captain of Canada’s U18 junior national team.
In terms of his production numbers, Smith plays in the WHL, which is a high-scoring league, so it’s a bit more difficult to compare his production on the surface to someone like Boqvist, who plays in the SHL, or Hughes, who played in the NCAA. However, his 73 points in 69 games stacks up nicely to the number Ivan Provorov put up in the WHL during his draft year (61 points in 60 games), and his SEAL (adjusted scoring value that accounts for situation, era, age and league) of 1.27 ranks him above Noah Dobson and Adam Boqvist, and behind Evan Bouchard and Quinn Hughes (data via Canucks Army Spring Rankings).
In my personal opinion, Ty Smith is a complete package whose upside is not far off from Quinn Hughes and Adam Boqvist, whom nearly everyone has ranked a tier or two ahead. While I also have Hughes and Boqvist a tier above Smith, I don’t believe the gap between the players to be nearly as big as many perceive it to be. To be completely honest, the only reason I can think of as to why most rank Smith in the 10-14 range instead of the top-10, is because he had a poor showing in the World Junior tournament, where he posted zero points in five games. However, like I said when discussing the Svechnikov vs. Zadina debate earlier, I feel that many individuals overrate this tiny sample size of games relative to the overall body of work. If the draft goes about as expected, and our top-six are gone when the Rangers select at nine, I personally would be very happy if the Rangers select Ty Smith. Assuming health, the kid is very likely going to be a very good NHL player, with clear top-pairing upside.[/text_output]
Mattias Samuelsson is a hard-nosed, defense-first type of defenseman. At the start of the 2017-2018 season, he was thought to be a pure defensive defenseman, who would chip in rarely, but that changed during the year as he was able to contribute more to the offensive side of the game. He scored 11 goals and had 31 points and racked up 113 PIM’s in 58 games during the 2017-2018 season. He’s a guy who will stand up for his teammates and was named captain of the U.S. National Team Development Program.
At 6’4”, many think skating would be an issue, but that’s not the case with Samuelsson. He’s definitely not the best skater in this year’s draft, but for his size, he is an above average skater. He has the ability to join the rush, but he will never be a defenseman who leads the rush (such as Boqvist or Hughes). He’s a good passer and has good vision, which is needed to start a good transition game. Has a good hard shot which he started to use more this past season. In the NHL, he will likely be known for his defensive play, which will be a hard-nosed type of game. He should also be able to dish out the big hit when needed, but without putting himself out of position, a key trait to an effective physical player.
Samuelsson could get drafted in the late first-round, and in my opinion would be a steal if he falls into the second. I think he’ll likely go late on Friday, June 22nd and some of it has to do with the family name (his father Kjell played over 800 games in the NHL). Samuelsson has NHL size already and will play heavy defensive minutes for years to come. What I like most about Samuelsson is not just his size, but the way he is able to effectively use that size to his advantage.[/text_output]
I already profiled Martin Kaut, in my first piece on the prospects we did a month ago. While I likened him to a Jesper Fast-type player, someone who you can plug anywhere in the lineup, but seemingly has more offensive upside then Fast. I liked his overall two-way game and the edge he brings to his style of play. What I could see more of and would like to see more is him using his body more. This is the type of guy, I really feel could be a good plug and play type of guy and be successful in the NHL once he gets a hang of the smaller ice.
As we go on and look at some other players, you see guys like Benoit Oliver-Groulx, a guy who I have going 40th compared to where Drew (48) and George (also 48) have him going. I like his two-way game, I think he’d be a great middle-six guy in a lineup, with top-six potential.
Yet, one guy I really am high on, was another surprising difference, more on their tier. I’m talking about Evan Bouchard, the big and talented right-handed defenseman of the London Knights in the OHL. In the first piece we did on prospects, each of us discussed some players we’d like the Rangers to target with the various picks, and Evan Bouchard was a guy that instantly caught my attention as a potential option for the Rangers’ own pick at nine.
I liked his skating ability, how he could handle himself carrying the puck and how from time to time he could light the lamp. After seeing where Drew (tier-5) and George (tier-4) ranked him respectfully, I had to respectfully decline and disagree with their rank and rank him at tier-3 because of how this big bodied defenseman can carry himself.
He’s a smooth skater, who can move. He can chip in on any situation, particularly good on the powerplay, and has done well in elevating his game since the Knights traded away a good portion of their leaders during the league’s trade deadline. He took it upon himself to lead by his play, which led him to be announced to the OHL’s first all-star team on May 17.
Bouchard could be a game changer defensively and quite possibly be the best defender taking in the top-10 that isn’t named Rasmus Dahlin. He has all the tools to be ready for the NHL next year and could make an impact on a team that has holes on their blueline. If you are looking for a player style comparison, I would say his game most reminds me of Drew Doughty.[/text_output]
In terms of North American prospects, I’m a huge fan of Jack Wise’s potential, and I believe a significant reason why many have him outside of the first-round, is because scouts were watching him through the lens of the ridiculous expectations that were originally placed upon him. For those unaware, all the way back in 2013 (when Wise was only 13-years-old), he was dubbed “the next one,” and in 2014 when he verbally committed to BU, he drew many favorable comparisons to Jack Eichel.
Sure, Wise didn’t live up to these lofty expectations, and his production with the USNTDP leaves some to be desired compared to some of his teammates that will likely be drafted higher. It should be noted though that injuries played a major role in dampening his prospect stock, and I believe his overall talent profile can lead to him being an absolute steal in the second round, which is where many pundits have him being taken. Honestly, I wouldn’t be mad at all if the Rangers took him with either the Boston or Tampa Bay pick in the first, that’s how much I believe in his ability. He’s a skilled puck handler with a high IQ (insert your silly Wise puns here), and he plays a strong two-way game. While he’s known as more of a playmaker than a shooter—and he is a very good playmaker—he does have a sneaky-good shot, and that combined with his puck handling ability and agility I believe will allow him to generate good scoring chances in the NHL.[/text_output]
For a little bit of a deeper cut, one player that could very well be still on the board in the third I think Ranger fans might want to keep in mind is the youngest player in the draft, Czech center Jan Jenik, who literally made the cutoff for the draft by a matter of hours, as he was born on the cutoff day for draft eligibility (September 15, 2000). I have Jenik ranked 60th overall in my own ranks, and he was one of the first players that missed the cut in our consensus top-62. Due to his very young age and relatively raw ability, Jenik is all over the place in the various expert ranks I’ve seen; NHL Central Scouting has him the highest rank of anyone I’ve seen, ranking him the 16th best European skater, ahead of a handful of guys that are generally higher rated such as his fellow countryman Jakub Lauko and three wingers that I have all in my top-35: Niklas Nordgren, David Gustafsson and Jonatan Berggren. On the low end, I’ve seen multiple popular ranking sites, such as Future Considerations, that have him ranked outside of the first three rounds.
Jenik had a strong showing with the Czech U18 team this year, as he has posted seven goals and two assists in twelve games with the international team this year. He’s got good length at 6’ 1’’, but currently only weighs 165, which is definitely on the lean side for a hockey player over six-foot tall. When you watch him play, he does get pushed around a bit for a player of his height, and so he will definitely need to hit the weight room if he hopes to have a successful NHL career. However, it’s worth reminding you that he is literally the youngest player in this draft class, and there can be a massive difference in the physical maturity between a 17-year-old and an 18-year-old.
On the positive side, Jenik has a very well-rounded game however, with good hands and very good stick handling, and a motor that is up there with anyone in this draft class. Perhaps the thing that stands out most to me in the little bit I’ve watched of him, is he is very good at handling the puck in high-traffic areas, which suits his overall game very well since he frequently finds himself in front of the night. He is not afraid to engage anyone in board battles, and often puts himself in great position to receive passes and get shots off from the net-front position he loves. Further, he is defensively responsible, and seems to always be in the right place in terms of his defensive positioning. I’d be very happy if the Rangers nabbed Jenik in the third-round.[/text_output][image type=”circle” float=”none” link=”true” target=”blank” info=”tooltip” info_place=”bottom” info_trigger=”hover” src=”2574″ alt=”Photo Credit: Profimedia.cz” href=”https://www.blueshirtsbreakaway.com/” title=”Photo Credit: Profimedia.cz” info_content=”Photo Credit: Profimedia.cz” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h6″ looks_like=”h6″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]George Obremski[/custom_headline][text_output]I’ll go with a bit of an off-the-board option here, but one that I personally feel should’ve been on our board. Jakub Skarek is a 6’ 3’’ Czech goalie that for my money is the best goaltender prospect in this draft. He is one of the more controversial players when it comes to rankings in this year’s draft. I had Skarek at 60 on my rankings while Drew & Shawn both had him 70. His numbers at the World Juniors for the Czech Republic were not outstanding, but if you don’t include that tournament, he has posted very strong numbers this year given his age and situation. This past season, he had a 9-12 record, a .912 SV% (Save Percentage), and a 2.41 GAA (Goals against Average) on a subpar Dukla Jihlava team. He has been posting great numbers in all developmental leagues since the age of 15. He saw action in the U-20 level at the age of 16; played 1 game but posted a shutout against players above his age group. In the 2015 World U17 Hockey Challenge, he was pretty much unbeatable where he posted a 1.58 GAA and a .943 SV%.
He is a very athletic goalie who will never give up on a play and will make those high-lite reel saves. He has the size, strength, and power to move post to post and has the ability to quickly challenge shooters above the crease. He is an above average puck mover and has the speed to get to the puck quickly.
Because of his late birthday, he is very similar to the Jake Oettinger of the 2017 draft. Skarek already plays against men in the Czech league and has good fundamentals that could make him a successful goalie. If you are looking for a stylistic comparison, I would say you can take a look at Pekka Rinne.[/text_output]
Here was a guy who was on everyone’s radar to be a mid to late first-round pick earlier in the year, but upper-body injuries slowed him down throughout the year. Myself, along with George and Drew, all agree that a good strategy for finding diamonds in the rough beyond the first round is by targeting talented kids that fell in their draft year due to injury or illness, and Woo fits that bill.
When he did play, he was a noticeable factor on his team, getting top-four minutes. While only 17-years old, he can be someone who could mature into something stronger. While going into the draft this year, may have hurt his prospects at being a potential first round player in this year’s draft, whoever does end up drafting him in either the second or third round, may end up getting a steal of a player.
He is someone worth watching for, someone who is responsible in his own end (getting better in his own end over time, and over the course of the season), and can chip in offensively (ended this year with 9 goals and 16 assists this year).
I do think he resembles a lot of Anton Stralman, here’s a guy who has turned out to be a constant in his own end, solid skater and most importantly, someone who visually sees the ice like no other. Woo has the tools to becoming a player of this caliber. Whoever drafts him will be interested in how he grows.[/text_output]
Author: BSB Staff
This Article is presented to you in High Definition Surround Sound by some or all of the Blueshirts Breakaway Staff. At least whoever wasn’t lazy enough to contribute.