Every rumor we hear, projected draft pick, potential free agent fit – all of it needs to be taken with an iceberg of salt. Misdirection is the name of the game to keep opposing GMs from sniffing out strategies and goals heading into next season.
With all that being said, player trade values tend to become clearer this time of year. There’s a general understanding of which players are available and the types of packages it would require to nab someone off another team’s roster, which makes for fascinating fodder leading up to the NHL’s busy season.
As we’ve talked about in great length, the Rangers have a number of young, controllable assets occupying roster spots currently who are likely to begin next season playing for another team. The Vladdy Namestnikovs. The Ryan Spooners. Possibly the Kevin Hayeses. We’ve hit on all of these guys in detail.
However, our new friend (still weird) Rick Carpinello hit on a something about Jimmy Vesey in his most recent piece for The Athletic that was, well, shocking:[/text_output][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”2666″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]I shouldn’t be surprised by anything done or said by NHL GMs anymore, and yet I am. Routinely.
Jimmy Vesey being considered a more valuable roster piece than either Vlad Namestnikov or Ryan Spooner is baffling, for a number of reasons.
Before we get into examples of why this is dumbfounding, a word from our advanced analytics sponsor Drew Way, who will explain to you what you’re seeing in the #charts I’m about to throw at you in the form of SKATR.[/text_output][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”2668″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Thank you, Drew.
Now that we have the basics on paper, let’s look at Vesey when compared to Spooner.[/text_output][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”2670″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Spooner, who is only a year and a half older than Vesey, was flat-out the better player in nearly every regard last year. Outside of shot attempts and expected goals for, Spooner outclassed Vesey unilaterally, and that takes into consideration neither player ever really getting an opportunity with impact teammates.
Vesey’s best quality he has is shot creation and scoring opportunities, but Spooner netted nearly as many goals last year, all while playing 250+ fewer minutes.
Simply put, any time Spooner was on the ice in comparison to Vesey, his team had a much better chance at creating goals. And for two offensively-minded forwards, what more could you be looking for?
Now, as for Namestnikov:[/text_output][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”2672″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]There are obvious caveats we need to put in with Namestnikov that we’re all familiar with.
For starters, he played with arguably the two best linemates (Stamkos and Kucherov) in hockey for the overwhelming majority of the season, so his teammate-relative numbers are going to always dwarf Vesey’s. But while we consider that, you also have to remember that the quality of competition Namestnikov was routinely playing against in Tampa Bay also creates a wide gap from Vesey’s deployment, who was never really deployed against other team’s top defensive pairings/lines.
So yes, Namestnikov had the pleasure of playing with Stamkos and Kucherov, but he also had the challenge of going against other team’s best options, which makes his individual performance rather impressive, all things considered. He produced a higher game score, better point production and similar shot metrics to Vesey, and is only six months older.
On a talent vs. talent basis, there really isn’t an argument here. Vesey is comfortably last in terms of production when compared to Spooner and Namestnikov.
The only argument I can think of that could push Vesey’s value to the same level or above either Spooner or Namestnikov is his projected salary last year.
Drew broke down what all the Rangers RFAs could potentially get this off-season, with Vesey likely getting less than $2 million annually on a two-year deal, Spooner grabbing roughly $3 million on a one-year deal before he hits UFA status and Namestnikov either getting a two-year bridge deal at roughly $3.75 million annually or a four-year deal in the neighborhood of $4.8 million annually. Obviously, fitting Vesey into your budget for next season is easier, but you’re also getting a lesser player, so you’re not really helping yourself there.
I know what you’re asking yourself, “alright, Poindexter. If Vesey isn’t Spooner or Namestnikov, who is he?”
I’m glad you asked![/text_output][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”2674″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]That’s the same Jamie McGinn who signed a 3-year, $10 million contract with the Coyotes after the 2016 playoffs and in his last two trades, was dealt for a 3rd round pick straight up and then Jason Demers.
If the Rangers could somehow get a Demers-like player for Jimmy Vesey, backflips. That’s what we’re doing.
This post isn’t meant to be a pro-Namestnikov or pro-Spooner explanation. Hell, it’s not even meant to be anti-Vesey.
All I’m doing is saying: if other teams are evaluating Vesey at a higher level than either of the other two RFAs, then he absolutely should be the first forward traded this off-season. Capitalize on another GM’s misinterpretation of an asset and take it to the bank.
Personally, I’ve been pro-Vesey trade since the trade deadline. I think we’ve seen everything we’re going to see from Vesey, who will be entering his age-26 season which is right around the same time NHL teams tend to plateau in terms of talent. He’s a bottom six forward who will put the puck in the back of the net on occasion, and can survive on a third line if playing with higher end talent (like, say, Vladdy Namestnikov or Ryan Spooner).
I also would continue to shop both Namestnikov and Spooner, regardless of what you do with Vesey. To me, Spooner is the one I would keep if only because he’d require the shortest term contract and can easily be flipped at the trade deadline for more assets than you’re likely to get in the off-season. Let a playoff team panic buy Spooner like the Devils did Michael Grabner last year. That’s the ideal scenario.
If the Rangers end up keeping Jimmy Vesey, that’s fine! Every team needs players who can score at the bottom of their line-up, and Vesey has proven – at the very minimum – he can do that. But if another team wants to overvalue Vesey and give up something of worth for him?
Hey, it was a fun two years.[/text_output]
Author: Greg Kaplan
Greg Kaplan is a man of mystery. Did he write this? No. Was he asked to write this? Yes. But did he write this article? Maybe, do you like it?