The extension buys out the last two years of Namestnikov’s restricted free agent status, and he will be set to test the open market following the 2019-20 season.
While the move isn’t necessarily shocking, it is at least somewhat surprising considering all the options the team had regarding Namestnikov. There were discussions about signing Namestnikov to a longer-term deal, possibly something in the four-year range, and there were even louder conversations about including Namestnikov in a package for additional future assets.
The physical contract itself is in line with what Matt Cane projected Vladdy to receive, coming in roughly $200k more than his pre-free agency evaluation. Money has never been any real problem for the Rangers, who have more cap space than most teams would know what to do with both this year and next, barring additional long-term extensions for other pending restricted free agents.
There are two ways we need to evaluate this signing: Namestnikov as the player, and Namestnikov as the future trade asset.
First, the player.[/text_output][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”2708″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]The easiest player to compare Namestnikov to is the guy he was essentially traded for: J.T. Miller.
Earlier this off-season, Miller inked a five-year, $26.25 million extension that comes with a modified no-trade clause for the final four years of the deal. We talked extensively leading up to the trade deadline about how the Rangers were in a position to choose between a Miller extension and possible Kevin Hayes extension, and this is exactly why.
Over the last two years, Namestnikov has outplayed Miller, with the exception of Miller’s ability to score more goals. The common argument for this production from Namestnikov always comes back to “uhhhh guy, he played with Stamkos and Kucherov! Anyone could look good playing with them!”
Well, first of all, no. Not everyone can. Just because you play with elite talent doesn’t mean your production equals theirs. A rising tide doesn’t necessarily raise all boats. You still have to play up to your teammates in order to make that line successful, and Namestnikov has consistently been denied that credit by, well, just about everyone.
Second, eliminate the teammate-related stats and look at the bare bone metrics both Namestnikov and Miller put up last year.[/text_output][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”2709″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][image type=”none” float=”none” src=”2710″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Namestnikov outperformed Miller in terms of skating, shooting, shot creation and two-way play last season, all while providing the same passing standard that Miller did. Those are abilities Vladdy pulled off independently, unless you’re trying to tell me that it was actually Stamkos in his jersey the entire season.
We can both criticize Namestnikov’s performance once he came to New York just as much as we can write off some of Miller’s poor play as a result of playing in Alain Vigneault’s system. If we’re going to do that, though, then we also have to acknowledge that the best Vlad ever looked for the Rangers last season was his first week with the team, when he was basically allowed to freelance because there wasn’t enough practice time to “accumulate” him to AV’s system.
The added value to keeping Namestnikov in house for, at minimum, the start of this coming season – unlike Miller, he can shift between center and wing and not suffer a significant drop in performance.
There are only a few guarantees in my mind entering next season:
- One of Mika Zibanejad and Kevin Hayes will open the year as top line center
- Chris Kreider and Pavel Buchnevich will both be given top six minutes consistently
- Filip Chytil and Lias Andersson will open the season as this team’s second and third line centers
Outside of that, it’s a total question mark. It’s also not a guarantee that both Andersson and Chytil will spend the entire season at center, or the entire season in New York. Having someone on the roster that can slide into a center role in the middle six to take pressure off the kids is crucial (of course, the Rangers may have two of those types of players if Kevin Hayes re-signs and is shifted to the wing).
Right now – in theory – the Rangers top nine could be:
Kreider-Zibanejad-Buchnevich
Hayes-Chytil-Zuccarello
Namestnikov-Andersson-Vesey
Giving Andersson offensive talent to play with is just as important as giving Chytil the same. If their games are going to evolve, they need to play with high-level players. While we can argue about what kind of play Vesey is or could be in any system, pairing Andersson with Namestnikov gives him a presence on both ends of the ice to help grow his game.
As for Namestnikov the trade piece, not much has really changed.
Given what forwards are getting on the open market in free agency, anyone can find a way to fit Vlad’s $4M AAV into their budget for an upside top six forward. Larry Brooks makes it sound like the plan is to at least start the season with Vlad in the line-up, but that could easily change come the trade deadline when teams are dealing with injuries and under-performance from others in their line-up.
If the Rangers do decide to trade Namestnikov, they’ve bought themselves plenty of time to find the right moment to do so. This year’s deadline, next off-season, next year’s deadline, pick your poison.
It does create more possibilities for other forwards on the trade front. It always felt like one of Spooner/Namestnikov was going to get traded, so Spooner is firmly on the hot seat.
It also creates an interesting situation for Kevin Hayes.
There just isn’t enough room for all the centers the Rangers want to play this year, and the trade value for centers is at an all-time high (even if you’re slightly underwhelmed by what the Sabres got in return for Ryan O’Reilly). Signing Hayes and slotting him at wing for the time being in case one of the young guns can’t handle the spot is fine, but it also feels like you’re creating an underused asset who will be making north of $5M annually.
The Rangers have definitely been shopping Hayes around this off-season to see what his value might be to contenders. By bringing Namestnikov back, they’ve created an opportunity to more than explore that market now.[/text_output]
Author: Greg Kaplan
Greg Kaplan is a man of mystery. Did he write this? No. Was he asked to write this? Yes. But did he write this article? Maybe, do you like it?