October Power Rankings

A quote I try to live my life by comes from the philosopher Socrates, who said “I only know that I know nothing.” And it’s never been more apparent to me that I, in fact, know next to nothing about the NHL, than through the first month of the 2018-19 season. October has been truly wild, loaded with surprises, disappointments, and eye-popping plays. The chaos of regular season is reflected in this edition of the power rankings, where we see teams with playoff aspirations dropping into the basement, while expected disasters find themselves fighting for early playoff position.

Before we begin, let’s review my grading system. I primarily rank teams based off of how I feel they are playing now. This of course, will reward teams that play better at the end of the month than at the beginning, so I do also try to take the entire month into account. Also, the teams are divided into tiers. This will provide more clarity to where the gaps in the rankings are. For example, I feel that there is a bigger gap between ranks 4 and 5, then there is between 5 and 6. This is reflected in the tier rankings, which will indicate where I feel the big gaps are.

Tier #1: Cup Contenders

#1: Tampa Bay Lightning (+0)

It’s hard to find anything bad about the Lightning right now. In fact, I toyed with the idea of putting them in a tier by themselves. They’ve been a buzzsaw most nights, only dropping two games in regulation, to the feisty Canucks and Coyotes. They have the best penalty kill in the league, and a power play operating at 25%. They’re second in goals per game, and Steven Stamkos has barely even scored. It will be hard to keep this up if Andrei Vasilevskiy continues to face 35 shots a night, but Tampa’s loaded defense is more than capable of bringing that number down.

#2: Nashville Predators (+5)

At 5 on 5, the Predators are terrifying right now. The top line is averaging over 3 points per game, and the defense has lived up to their billing as the best in the NHL. The goaltending tandem of Rinne and Saaros has been fantastic as well; they have combined for a .919 SV% and 2.46 GAA. Rinne will miss time with an undisclosed injury, meaning Saaros will need to continue his strong play. However the Preds special teams are a major cause for concern: both the penalty kill and power play are bottom 10 in the league. They must improve in that regard to hold onto their spot atop these rankings.

#3: Colorado Avalanche (+12)

The best line in hockey is none other than MacKinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog. Combined, the three are averaging an absolutely bonkers 4.7 points per game. Perpetually underrated Semyon Varlamov is putting up video game numbers in net as well, and could be a strong candidate for Vezina if he stays healthy. Taking 7 of 8 points on an extended cross country road trip is not a feat this team would have accomplished a year ago, yet the new and improved Avs pulled it off just two weeks into this season.

#4: Toronto Maple Leafs (0)

William Nylander is still not a Leaf, but with Auston Matthews out for at least a month, the pressure might have shifted back to the front office. Without Nylander, Toronto is still first in goal scoring this season. The defense has been a mixed bag, though. For every Leafs defenseman playing well, there seems to be another on his pairing dragging him down. Leafs fans surely hope that Mike Babcock can figure out how to get this fixed, but as long as Ron Hainsey stays on the top pair, their optimism can only be so strong.

#5: San Jose Sharks (-3)

The month started off shaky for the Sharks, as Erik Karlsson took time to acclimate to his new surroundings, and Brent Burns took a while to find the scoresheet. Eventually, though, the team righted the ship, highlighted by a three goal third period comeback in Nashville. The Sharks are still less than the sum of their parts, and have struggled to put the massive talent they possess all together. A team with their talent should be more dominant than they have been, but adding a piece like Karlsson will take time to bear fruit.

Tier #2: Pushing for Playoffs

#6: Pittsburgh Penguins (-1)

Despite Sidney Crosby taking three weeks to score a goal, Matt Murray putting up decidedly mediocre numbers and the persistent Phil Kessel trade rumors, the Pens have only managed to lose one game in regulation this season. The special teams has been elite and they have managed to put together several impressive wins, including a dogfight in Toronto where Murray dazzled. Pittsburgh tends to start slow and turn it on in the later months, so Pens fans should definitely not be concerned.

#7: Boston Bruins (+2)

The Bruins top line is putting up bonkers numbers, already putting up two(!) hat tricks. But if you take out David Krejci, no bottom nine Bruins forward has more than 3 points in the first 11 games. Meanwhile, Tuukka Rask has been doing his annual Jekyll and Hyde, combining miserable performances against Washington and Calgary with brilliant games the rest of the way. Nevertheless, Boston has looked very good, outside of getting swept in Western Canada.

#8: Winnipeg Jets (-5)

Despite the solid record, the Jets haven’t really looked like the Jets we expected. Connor Hellebuyck has put up pretty average numbers. His .909 SV% and 2.83 GAA do not look like the numbers of a Vezina finalist. The possession and scoring numbers are unspectacular for a team with this much talent, yet they still find ways to win. The Jets special teams are keeping them in games that perhaps they would lose otherwise. One has to believe that they will turn back into the dominating force they were a year ago.

#9: Washington Capitals (-3)

The defending Champions, who will not be fucking suck next year, have combined compelling and disappointing performances in equal measure. Alex Ovechkin is playing at over a goal per game pace, while Evgeny Kuznetsov has built on his excellent playoffs. Braden Holtby has put up some troubling numbers, posting a 3.41 GAA. The Caps will only be able to outscore that pace for so long. The Vezina winner will surely get things back on track, hopefully sooner rather than later.

Tier #3: The Mushy Middle

#10: Chicago Blackhawks (+14)

Corey Crawford changes everything, just consider how last season went off the rails once he got injured. Having a top five offense will look much nicer now that Cam Ward, with his 3.91 GAA, will be watching from the bench. In the early going, the Hawks had to play pond hockey to give themselves a chance. The Hawks were looking to be trending in the right direction before dropping their last two against St. Louis and Edmonton.

#11: Carolina Hurricanes (+10)

Carolina’s shot numbers are flat out intimidating. They lead the league with 41 shot per game, and 24 shots allowed per game. Yeesh. Their scoring and goals against are very average, but as long as they continue to drive play, and aren’t sabotaged by their goaltending, they will continue to win games. Speaking of which, I still believe in Scott Darling. Perhaps he needs to be part of a platoon with Mrazek or McElhinney, but he was good enough in his first years in the league that I think last season could be an abomination.

#12: Buffalo Sabres (+16)

It’s feast or famine for the Sabres, who rise dramatically this month. They put up an impressive road trip in California, taking 2 of 3, including winning the back to back against Anaheim and LA. Say whatever you want about those teams, that is impressive for a team this young. Jeff Skinner, Jack Eichel and Carter Hutton have all been better than expected. This team looks to finally be moving in the right direction after a decade in the league basement.

#13: Minnesota Wild (+5)

After a rocky start, the Wild are starting to look like a better team than most, including myself expected. Devan Dubnyk is always underrated and quietly off to an outstanding start. Their possession numbers are concerning, as is the fact that they are the oldest roster in the entire NHL. Nevertheless, there is no substitute for winning, something Minnesota has been doing.

#14: Montreal Canadiens (+16)

When it comes to teams that I was wrong on, no team stands out quite like the Habs. When a team is lacking in talent in certain areas, like Montreal is on defense and down the middle, the best way to get around that deficit is by being young, fast, and having solid goaltending. Montreal is all those things. Carey Price has looked much better than he did a year ago, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi has looked worth the high draft pick. Max Domi is a player I’ve always liked, but I didn’t think for a minute he would be averaging a point per game, the way he did for me when I won the Cup with the Coyotes in Eastside Hockey Manager. 

#15: Vancouver Canucks (+12)

Vancouver is really building this team the right way. The caliber of prospects they have is second to none. Most teams would bend over backwards for one of Bo Horvat, Elias Pettersson, Sven Baertschi, and Brock Boeser. Vancouver, though, gets to have all four. That is, unless they are injured as they all have been at points this season. Nevertheless, they are getting unexpectedly good goaltending from Jacob Markstrom and it looks like a return to the playoffs may be on the horizon. If not this year, than certainly next year should be in the cards.

#16: New Jersey Devils (-2)

The Devils are hard to figure out. They’ve played exceptionally well at times, and layed a few eggs. The true complexion of this team is likely somewhere in the middle. The fact is, they’ve beaten the teams you’d expect they should, and played well in losing efforts to teams above them in the power rankings. On another note, it is a dark day for New York sports when a team from New Jersey is the most relevant team there is.

#17: Columbus Blue Jackets (-6)

Has anyone seen Sergei Bobrovsky? Because I know that the Russian playing goalie in Columbus can’t possibly be the two-time Vezina winner. At this rate, he’s not going to be rewarded on the open market this off-season, at least not in the way he expects to be. Artemi Panarin, on the other hand looks like his normal self, and is on pace to top his career best for points. If the goaltending doesn’t show up soon, will the team cut their losses and trade one or both players?

#18: Ottawa Senators (+13)

Just about everything I said regarding Montreal can be said for Ottawa. At no point did I expect the Sens to move out of the bottom five spots on the power rankings. And yet, through the first month, they actually look like they’re a team. Ottawa isn’t blowing anyone away, but between the above average offense and power play, they are actually capable of winning games in ways not seen before in the Guy Boucher trap era. The penalty kill is an abysmal 69.4%, and injuries are beginning to mount, putting Ottawa at a crossroads. How will such a young team respond to such adversity early in the year?

#19: Dallas Stars (-2)

“Secondary scoring? Never heard of it.” – Stars GM Jim Nill, probably. The Tyler Seguin resigning was of course huge, as is the astounding play of Miro Heiskanen, who looks worthy of the hype. But only two forwards not on the first line have more than one goal. Ben Bishop has been very solid, and while the Stars evolve into one of the better defensive teams in the NHL, there is potential for this team to get hot and go on a run, particularly if the top line gets hot. But it’s hard to see this team being a real threat as long as their scoring threats are so concentrated.

#20: Vegas Golden Knights (-12)

The magic is gone in Vegas, who looks now like what most people would’ve expected them to look like a year ago. Stastny and Pacioretty have both been injured, but neither was producing much before they left the lineup. The team is also missing Nate Schmidt due to suspension, which badly hurts the blueline, a strength last year. Marc Andre-Fleury and William Karlsson have started to round into form, which helps tremendously. If the team continues to struggle, one must wonder if they were too aggressive in acquiring assets for the present last season.

#21: Arizona Coyotes (+5)

Arizona was shut out in three of the teams’ first four games, and Coyotes fans were sure that this year was off to another miserable start. Since then, the Yotes have started putting it together and are looking dangerous. The defense and goaltending have been exceptional, so now that they are starting to shoot successfully, Arizona fans can dream about going on a run this year. Bold prediction: Unless he misses significant time with injury this year, Antti Raanta will be a Vezina finalist.

#22: Edmonton Oilers (+1)

Connor McDavid is very good at hockey. The Edmonton Oilers are not, despite the recent success. Through nine games, Cam Talbot, the teams goaltender, had more points than five of the Oilers bottom six forwards. McDavid is exceptional enough to force this team to win more games than they otherwise shouldn’t, but this team is turning into the prime example of asset mismanagement in the sport. What they are doing simply isn’t working, and they don’t have the cap flexibility to make a change.

Tier #4: The Mediocre Mess

#23: Anaheim Ducks (-10)

John Gibson, my preseason Vezina pick, can only do so much. Anaheim is a mess right now, unable to generate any offensive pressure or limit opponent’s scoring chances. Not a single player on the Ducks has a Corsi For% above 50. For the uninitiated, this means that not a single player on the Ducks is generating more shots than they are facing, which is exceptionally bad. Early in the year, they were managing to scrape out wins, but the luck has run out, and the Ducks have looked downright awful.

#24: New York Islanders (+1)

In spite of some ugly possession numbers, the Islanders are winning due to something they haven’t gotten in many years: Good goaltending. Robin Lehner has quietly been one of the best goalies in the league, and Thomas Greiss has chipped in some excellent work in relief. Matt Barzal has scored all of one goal so far, but as long as the goaltending remains solid, there is a glimmer of hope. This team might look very solid if they had a number one Center, but those are hard to come by, and definitely should never be allowed to walk in free agency.

#25: Calgary Flames (-6)

Where’s Glen Gulutzan to throw a stick into the stands when you need him? The Flames made wholesale changes after last season’s disappointment, and they haven’t been abysmal, but their goaltending sure has been. By all accounts, Mike Smith has been one of, if not the worst goalies in the entire NHL. David Rittich has been solid in limited action, but got lit up in relief during the massacre against Pittsburgh. Calgary’s offense is top 10 in the league, but until they can reliably get saves, that won’t be enough.

#26: St. Louis Blues (-14)

Probably the most disappointing team in the NHL, St. Louis looked like a cup contender going into the season. The results have not beared that out though. Jake Allen has posted a GAA of nearly 4, which begs the question if the injury that held him out of the start of the preseason is still bothering him. The special teams have been very good, but they’ve choked away late leads and failed to come up with the critical second point in three divisional overtime games. The big win over Chicago might be something to build on, but the Central is incredibly competitive. The hole they’ve dug might be too deep to escape before the playoffs.

#27: Philadelphia Flyers (-17)

Philly is basically Calgary minus the offense. The Flyers have started three goalies so far, and not one has a GAA under 3.4 or a SV% over .887%. For a team whose general manager is a goalie in the team’s Hall of Fame, they’ve done an awful job of finding acceptable goaltending talent. The team’s offense, a strength last season, has disappointed; The top forwards of Giroux, Voracek, and Couturier have a mere three goals each. The special teams wraps up the disappointments with an abysmal 67.5% Penalty Kill. There is not a lot to get excited about in Philly right now.

#28: Florida Panthers (-12)

Florida can’t possibly be this bad, can they? I picked them to finish third in the division. Instead the are third from the bottom of the entire East. This team desperately misses Roberto Luongo, who has missed all but 32 minutes of the season with a sprained MCL. Of course, it doesn’t matter who your goalie is if you are bottom five in the league in goal scoring, like the Panthers are. This start is reminiscent of last season, when the Panthers dug themselves a massive hole that proved too much to make the playoffs when they finally started playing up to potential.

Tier #5: Down in the Dumpster

#29: LA Kings (-9)

It’s funny how the team that everyone was convinced was too old and slow has looked, well, too old and slow. Consider that, in their most recent game, the Kings dressed only 2 skaters drafted since 2011. Jonathan Quick had looked unlike himself before being placed on injured reserve. Scoring has been hard to come by, even despite the addition of Ilya Kovalchuk. That six game losing streak was worse than it sounds, and ending it by beating the Rangers isn’t much cause for excitement.

#30: New York Rangers (-8)

Rangers fans were expecting to lose, the front office prepared us for that. But I think few were expecting to look completely incompetent, the way they have recently. The first few losses were frustrating but hinged on a few bounces and missed penalty calls, but starting with the win against Florida, the shot numbers have been atrocious, getting outshot by more than double against teams that have been middling at best in terms of shot metrics. Perhaps the new, straight line, shoot first mentality isn’t taking hold, or perhaps something bigger is the problem. There’s still time to get this team looking capable again, but right now there is cause for concern in Rangerstown.

#31: Detroit Red Wings (-2)

If Arby’s doesn’t believe in you, who will? The Wings are bottom three in goals for and goals against this year. Jimmy Howard is working his butt off in net, but at 34 and facing 33 shots a night, he’s going to wear down eventually. Dylan Larkin is exciting, but aside from that and the now increased possibility of free curly fries, there is very little to hang your hat on in Motown.