The Road Ahead: What’s Next After The Deadline?

If you’re anything like I am, you’ve already read a ton about what the Rangers did at the trade deadline, much of which is exactly what we expected.

There weren’t any curveballs this year like including J.T. Miller in the Ryan McDonagh package. There weren’t any real blockbusters, like Rick Nash to Boston. The Rangers conducted the business they expected (trading the three expiring deals who sat out the last two games ahead of the deadline) for basically what we expected to receive (in total, a ’19 1st, conditional ’19 2nd, ’19 4th, ’19 7th, conditional ’20 3rd, winger Brendan Lemieux and depth defender Julius Bergman).

The last two trade deadlines, the goal has been extremely clear: turn expiring assets who aren’t a clear part of the Rangers long-term future into assets that have the potential to be part of the solution. Some of the trades were obvious (Nash, Nick Holden, Adam McQuaid), some hurt more than others (Mats Zuccarello), some seemed controversial (Miller and Kevin Hayes) and some were an admittance that the Rangers just won’t be good enough right now to warrant a long-term extension for a player about to exit his prime (McDonagh).

It happened. All the deals are done. The new pieces are what they are. The real question we all need to ponder now: what exactly is next?

With the forwards, if you squint a bit, you can see the path forward. Or at least, you can see what the Rangers hope is the path forward.

There’s are a handful of guarantees. Mika Zibanejad used this season as his own personal tryout to prove to Rangers management (and the entire NHL) that he’s a more than capable first line center. Mission accomplished, emphatically, and at a $5.35M cap hit for the next three years and still just 25-years-old, he’s locked in to the future.

We know Filip Chytil and Lias Andersson are going to be part of the process forward, though we don’t exactly know how they figure in exactly right now. Considering Chytil remained on the wing when Hayes exited the line-up initially, it’s safe to assume he will remain there for the immediate future.

Andersson, meanwhile, is already getting more attention than he did in his first run with the Rangers this year. We all might want Pavel Buchnevich playing alongside Zibanejad and Kreider on the top line, but giving Andersson Chytil and Buch on the wings is putting him in a position to succeed immediately. If the sum is truly greater than the individual parts, Buchnevich’s presence next to Andersson is much more important than Buchnevich piling up points on the top line.

Chytil and Andersson are probably the two most important post-deadline forwards on the team in terms of long-term outlook, because we’re at a point where we need to get long-term answers. This year has been the year of questions, and asking as many questions as possible has been critical. The question of ‘what should we expect from Chytil and Andersson moving forward’ is now firmly on the table. The answer is what we seek.

Speaking of Buchnevich, this is an important stretch for him as well, if not as important as Chytil’s and Andersson’s conclusion to the season. He’s entering his first year of restricted free agency this summer, and for the life of me, I couldn’t tell you how the Rangers should handle his contract negotiations. As hard as this is to believe, Buchnevich is already a more accomplished winger than Chris Kreider was when Kreider entered restricted free agency, and the Rangers awarded him a bridge deal for two-years at $2.475M annually.

If the Rangers want to play the short-term numbers game and keep open as much long-term cap space as possible, I could see a two or three-year bridge deal for Buchnevich. Then again, there’s nothing in the world I hate more than bridge deals, and being able to lock Buchnevich up to a longer-term deal at what will likely be a below-market value AAV once he hits full potential would be a huge advantage.

I find it hard to believe the Rangers would move on from Buchnevich when, at worst, his trade market value is unsettled. It’s not out of the realm of possibility, but the odds have to be low. Plus, the Rangers need as many high-end wingers on cheaper deals as possible as they exit the first phase of the rebuild, and Buchnevich (along with Chytil, Andersson and Brett Howden) check those boxes at least partially.

A lot of what the Rangers have otherwise on the forward ranks I’d classify as solid depth. All good NHL teams have players like Vlad Namestnikov, Jesper Fast, Ryan Strome and, yes, even Jimmy Vesey playing minutes in their bottom six. The problem is, most good NHL teams don’t have as many of these players as the Rangers do while also trying to infuse some youth (we haven’t even mentioned the likelihood of Vitali Kravtsov being somewhere in the Rangers line-up next year).

One has to think at least one of those four is not going to be a Ranger beyond this summer, and it’s safe to assume that guy is Namestnikov considering how popular his name was in rumors leading up to the deadline (despite not being dealt).

The real question about what the Rangers do long-term at forward is two part: the big free agent addition and one Chris Kreider.

The free agent question is both an easy answer and a complicated one.

Perfect scenario, as has been mentioned ad nauseum at this point, is Artemi Panarin. You don’t need me to tell you what his qualifications are. They’re widely known and widely accepted. More importantly, the Rangers have more than enough cap room to sign him to whatever long-term contract he wants, and they should.

The real question we haven’t really even asked: the fuck do the Rangers do if Panarin doesn’t come to New York?

This is the question that should terrify you more than anything else, because all those big names that felt sexy before the season started have already dried up, especially with Mark Stone’s agreed-upon extension following his trade to Vegas.

Jeff Skinner will likely be on the market, but he’s firmly in the second-banana family where the Rangers are looking for an out-and-out #1. Joe Pavelski is 35. Matt Duchene, possibly? But adding down the middle doesn’t feel like something the Rangers want to do.

On the restricted free agency front, the options are plentiful, but there’s an incredibly important caveat to signing an offer sheet. First, you can’t go beyond five years without putting yourself in higher financial brackets, which leads to a higher ‘penalty’ you’d have to give up to the team losing the player. Second, those higher penalties? They’re insane. Basically, anything over $8M AAV is going to cost you multiple first round picks, and anything over $10M AAV is going to cost you as many as four first round picks. Nobody, not even the Columbus Blue Jackets, has the appetite to give up four straight first rounders for one player.

Mitch Marner has no plans on leaving Toronto. The Colorado Avalanche have $33M in projected cap space, so there is no number where they run away from Mikko Ratanen. Same thing goes for the Hurricanes and Sebastian Aho. The Tampa Bay Lightning will make the necessary cap space to keep Brayden Point by trading one of Tyler Johnson, Alex Killorn or send a prospect out to get someone to take Ryan Callahan (maybe the Rangers!). The Sharks have enough cap space to extend Erik Karlsson and Timo Meier, especially if they allow Pavelski to walk.

The only options the really exist on the RFA front is maybe one of Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine, given the cap situation the Jets find themselves in (who also have to pay Jacob Trouba, and yeah, we’re getting to him). However, while Connor probably gets something in that $7M AAV moneyhole that would only cost a offer-sheeting team a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick in 2020, that’s a deal the Jets would match with ease. And the problem with Laine: he wants something in that $9.5-10M AAV range that comes with an exuberant draft pick cost and, given his struggles this year, we’re not even sure you want to lock him into that rate over the next five years. I would, and I would happily, but trading so many first round picks instead of trying to work out a trade seems extremely unlikely, and the Rangers likely don’t have the bullets to pull off a Laine deal without including Kravtsov, Chytil and K’Andre Miller.

And the options after them, we’re back into the second-banana category. Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen are fun players that great teams need on the wings in their middle six, but they’re not exactly players you would feel comfortable building around. They’re the players you use to build around other stars.

So, really, as terrifying as it sounds: it’s Artemi Panarin or bust. And if they bust, well, that brings us to Kreider.

I’m on record (and Ryan is on the same record) that extending Chris Kreider makes all the sense in the world for the Rangers. Jeff Gorton himself has said he doesn’t want this full rebuild going on too much longer, and is expected to use this summer as opportunity #1 to make more aggressive moves (see: Panarin). If you want to bring in Panarin, you need to surround him with proven assets to enhance his abilities. Panarin is absolutely the type of player who can make role players better, but a top line of Kreider-Zibanejad-Panarin would arguably be one of the best in the league. Or, if you want to make the line-up deeper by splitting up Kreider and Panarin, you’re creating an entire top six that teams shit their pants about.

But without Panarin, and without a major move to bring in another top end winger? Well, now we need to ask out loud why you’d keep Chris Kreider here for the second half of his prime and beginning of his post-prime years. It’s the same conversation we were forced to have this year about Kevin Hayes, except (even those who love Hayes would admit this) Hayes isn’t a top line player like Kreider.

Could Kreider continue to be part of the solution to the long-term Rangers conundrum without bringing in a high-end talent this off-season? I really don’t think so. You’re pushing the buck down the road an additional year, meaning the next time Kreider plays a truly meaningful game for the Rangers would be in his age-29 and age-30 seasons, and he’d be doing it playing on something that would look like James van Riemsdyk’s with the Flyers.

I’d be thrilled to have Kreider on a four-or-five year deal at around $7M AAV for his next contract, but without a complimentary piece in the top six, I don’t see the point. Kreider is one of the absolute best complimentary players in the league, which is by no means an insult. Every team that wins the cup does so because they have someone like Kreider on their roster, like the Penguins and Phil Kessel. You just have to give Kreider something to compliment, and I think it’s imperative to get that player this summer.

If not, it’s hard to imagine getting a significantly better return for Kreider than the one the Rangers got for Kevin Hayes, and it won’t approach getting a prospect like Erik Brannstrom the Senators got from Vegas.

I say all that to say this: if you’re trading Chris Kreider, you’re trading him in the summer. Otherwise, whether it fits the long-term model Jeff Gorton is running, I think you have to extend him. That’s the predicament the Rangers are in.

Now, defensively?

Fuck if any of us know. And it’s getting unsettling.

The only true, flat-out, 100% guarantees we can jot down for next season defensively: Brady Skjei will be in the line-up, and Marc Staal will be in the line-up. However you feel about Marc Staal, simple facts still remain: he has a complete no-movement clause, he has a salary other teams wouldn’t want and the Rangers staff clearly values his impact on the younger roster players. He’s essentially an extension of the coaching staff, though an incredibly expensive one at that.

I’m of the opinion Kevin Shattenkirk will be a New York Ranger next year, but even I would admit that it’s uncertain enough where I don’t know if you can write him in with a pen. I don’t see the reason to trade him, given he does more good than harm for this team, regardless of what those who have already soured on him say without any evidence beyond the immortal eye test.

What I would agree with is Kevin Shattenkirk isn’t a top-pairing defender, something even his old college coach David Quinn seems to admit when there aren’t better options at his disposal. I think it’s even a stretch to say Brady Skjei is a top-pairing defender, but with the right partner on his right side, you can get away with it.

What we know for sure: that right-handed partner does not currently exist on the Rangers roster.

But there is an opportunity to find him this off-season, either by trade or by offer sheet. Jacob Trouba, who I’ve written about at length and have talked about more than most would like on Twitter and the podcast, is available. Adding him alongside Panarin in free agency immediately takes the Rangers from “we don’t really know where we’re going” to “huh, this team could fuck around and make the playoffs”.

Now, if they don’t add Trouba? Uh, hmm.

Zach Werenski is a guy the Blue Jackets won’t let go, especially with Panarin and Bobrovsky on their way out via unrestricted free agency. Jake Gardiner and Tyler Myers are complimentary defenders, and the Rangers have nobody to compliment their games. And then there’s Erik Karlsson, who we both can’t rule out, but also can’t expect the Rangers to be in the market for. Plus, there’s still a good chance he never makes it to unrestricted free agency given the roster situation the Sharks find themselves in.

So, regardless of what the Rangers do with their forwards and moving that group forward, this team isn’t a playoff team unless they significantly address the defense. If they don’t add Trouba, we’re going into Year 2 of Let’s Ask As Many Questions As Possible.

Tony DeAngelo and Neal Pionk have answered questions this year, though in completely opposite directions.

DeAngelo, as long as he can keep his head on straight (which, in fairness, is no guarantee) has earned himself a spot in the Rangers line-up every night. Even if the Rangers import someone like Trouba, DeAngelo has earned one of the three right-handed defensive spots on this team. And honestly, a trio of Trouba-Shattenkirk-DeAngelo could be characterized as really good, something we haven’t been able to say about a Rangers defensive corps in years.

Pionk, meanwhile, at this point in time, it’s hard to say he’s anything more than a low-end depth defenseman. Outside of a scoring streak early this season, Neal Pionk has consistently been one of the Rangers worst on-ice performers, both at 5v5 and especially on the penalty kill. If he’s locked into the Rangers defensive line-up next year, that would be incredibly concerning, both from a standpoint of the Rangers being unable to add better options and from a standpoint of the Rangers thinking he’s actually better than he is. Pionk as your 7th guy? Sure, fine. You could do worse (lest we forget the Steve Kampfer Era). You could also do better, though.

I fail to see a scenario where the Rangers continue to roster Brendan Smith beyond this year. Buying him out or eating 50% of the two years remaining on his contract in a trade with another enticing asset seem like the only two scenarios. It would allow the Rangers to boost their open cap space to no lower than $20 million, which only provides more options on the open/trade market.

Freddy Claesson, given how popular his name was on deadline day, looks like a guy the Rangers will once again try to flip in the summer when other teams want to add cost-controlled bottom pairing/depth options.

It’s also hard to think of a scenario where the Rangers aren’t trying to create a bottom-pairing opening for one of Ryan Lindgren or Yegor Rykov. Libor Hajek’s well-documented struggles in the AHL show he needs at minimum another year on the farm, but Lindgren has done more than hold his own, and didn’t look over-matched in his brief NHL cameo. Rykov, meanwhile, has impressed in the KHL after an early-season move, and seems primed to at least be given a chance to earn NHL ice-time out of the gate. Would it be a disappointment if both opened the year in Hartford? Absolutely not, but I don’t think it makes any sense to lock yourself into someone to prevent them from having the opportunity (and honestly, that guy who hangs around as insurance might be Claesson).

Are the Rangers significantly better with a D line-up next year of:

Skjei-Trouba

Staal-DeAngelo

Lindgren/Rykov-Shattenkirk

Pionk

Significantly? That might not be the right word, but they’re markedly improved. And, more importantly than anything else, trending in the right direction, with prospects like K’Andre Miller, Nils Lundkvist, Joey Keane and whoever else they acquire this off-season still on the periphery.

The trade deadline helped clear out some of the fog, but there’s admittedly a lot of it lingering around. What it did do is helped us, if you try really hard, see the path forward.

But if that path gets washed out, man. I have no idea.