I totally respect the fact that some hockey bloggers take their writing extremely seriously, as they either just are the type of person who always takes the utmost pride in their work, or they view it as a potential career path.
I am not one of those people.
Don’t get me wrong, I do take pride in anything I put any amount of real time and effort into, and trust me, it takes a considerable amount of time to do some of the draft and analytics content I enjoy. However, hockey blogging is just a fun outlet for me, and so I try to not take myself too seriously and have some fun with the people who like to read my stuff.
With that said, it’s time to hand out the 2020 Ty Smith Memorial Trophy! For those of you who have not followed my previous NHL draft work, the Ty Smith Memorial Trophy is a goofy little thing I do to acknowledge the player that I adamantly feel is being under-ranked by the prospect community at large. This article will be the first in a series of draft-related posts, and you can expect our final rankings to be released within the next couple of weeks.
The genesis of the award comes from its namesake and the 2018 NHL draft. While I’ve been a bit of a draft nerd for a long time, 2018 was the first year I began publishing my draft research. That year, I became absolutely enamored with Ty Smith, and I badgered pretty much anyone who would listen about how I firmly believed Smith was a top-10 prospect, while the majority of the prospects community had him in the mid-teens. To this day people tag me in pretty much any positive post they find about Ty Smith, and I love it.
Thus, the Ty Smith Memorial Trophy was born! Obviously, Ty Smith was the 2018 recipient, and he was followed up by Pavel Dorofeyev in 2019. I still claim both Smith and Dorofeyev as my own, and I can guarantee you all that I will be absolutely insufferable when they make their NHL debuts.
Honorable Mentions
Before we get to the finalists however, I want to highlight some honorable mentions. These are all players I strongly considered as finalists, but got cut when I made the arbitrary decision to limit the article to just five finalists. Regardless, I still feel strongly enough about them to include them here.
Anton Johannesson – Has flown under the radar due to injuries, and many project him to go in the third round (or later). In my opinion, he is a highly skilled and intelligent defenseman who is more than worthy of a second round selection, with the upside to make a lot of people wonder how he even fell that far in the years to come.
Lucas Raymond – Yea, I get it, everyone knows he’s very good, and should have no business on this list. I did want to include him as an honorable mention just to get one point in: I think people are completely galaxy-braining things if they have Raymond ranked any lower than 5. Personally, I have him at 3 and in my second tier which consists only of him and Quinton Byfield. In other words, I think he’s closer to 2nd overall than 4th. If Raymond somehow slips past the 5th pick in the draft, he will be an absolute steal for whoever takes him.
Kasper Simontaival – Had a bit of a disappointing season production wise relative to the hype he had coming into the season. Admittedly, I even dropped him some in my rankings, but I think he has an elite shot and a fantastic overall offensive game and is still very worthy of a first round selection.
Antonio Stranges – The guy I was perhaps most wrong about in my early rankings, as he dropped from 19 all the way to 39 from my December ranks to now. Whatever, despite the fact that he has seemingly all the talent in the world but cannot translate that to production, I still have faith. Many have dropped him into the third round or further, but I still think he is a worthwhile gamble with a second round selection.
Finalists
The crop of NHL prospects that made it as finalists for the ultra-prestigious 2020 Ty Smith Memorial Trophy vary a good amount in terms of where they will realistically be drafted, ranging from a few guys who should go in the top-half of the first round, to a couple that likely won’t hear their name called until round two (and will be a steal for whomever gets them that late). For each player, I provide my ranking of them compared to Colin Cudmore’s draft expected range tracker (fantastic resource, you all should check it out) and a couple of the high profile professional analysts who have recently published lists: Sam Cosentino (SportsNet), Craig Button (TSN) and Mike Morreale (NHL.com).
Rodion Amirov
Prospect Profile:
- Position – Left Wing
- Team (league) – Salavat Yulaev (KHL)
- Nation – Russia
- Birth Date – October 2, 2001
- Handedness – Left
- Height & Weight – 6’ 0’’, 168 lbs
Ranking Summary:
- My Ranking: 13
- Colin Cudmore: 16
- Sam Cosentino: 17
- Craig Button: 19
- Mike Morreale: 17
As I’m typing this, Rich Coyle, who along with George Obremski are my partners in crime for Blueshirts Breakaway draft coverage, just published a fantastic profile on Amirov for The Prospect Network. I just read it, and he captures pretty much anything I would say. So, if you want to know why Amirov is worthy of inclusion here, please go and check out Rich’s piece. To summarize however, I feel strongly that Amirov’s game will translate to the NHL seamlessly, and I think he’ll become a possession-driving winger who can play in all situations and contribute across all areas of the ice.
Brendan Brisson
Prospect Profile:
- Position – Center
- Team (league) – Chicago (USHL), committed to play for the University of Michigan (NCAA)
- Nation – USA
- Birth Date – October 22, 2001
- Handedness – Left
- Height & Weight – 5’ 11’’, 179 lbs
Ranking Summary:
- My Ranking: 20
- Colin Cudmore: 39
- Sam Cosentino: Not ranked (31)
- Craig Button: 22
- Mike Morreale: 31
There are a number of guys I admittedly did not have in my first round in our December ranks, but either performed tremendously in 2020—before COVID-19 wreaked havoc on the world that is—or I was just wrong/not aware enough of in December. Brendan Brisson is both. His skill profile is electric, so much so that I admittedly am a bit embarrassed for not having been more acutely aware of him back in December. He also just absolutely crushed it in 2020 for the Chicago Steel, and has rocketed up the draft boards of many prospect enthusiasts.
Speaking of things I was wrong about, early in the season Antonio Stranges was a guy I was banging the drum hard for. Stranges has an elite skill profile but the production just wasn’t there, and I was banking early on my prediction that the production would eventually come around and become more representative of his skill set. It did not.
However, we are here to talk about Brisson, and the reason I brought up Stranges was to say that I believe Brisson has a similarly exemplary skill profile, but also has the production to match it. Brisson put up 58 points—24 goals and 34 assists—in 45 games played, tied for the USHL points lead among draft year players with teammate Sam Colangelo. Perhaps even more impressive is that of his 58 total points, 45 were primary points, good for a clip of 1.0 primary points per game, second in the league among draft year players and third overall.
In addition to the production, Brisson is just an absolute joy to watch. He is easily one of my favorite players to watch out of this entire draft class. Check out this highlight video of Brendan Brisson before I give my own thoughts on his game, I promise it will be worth your time.
The shot. THE ONE-TIMER. The vision. The skating. The playmaking. The flair—I’m going to assume he gets some of that from his father, Pat Brisson, one of the most powerful agents in the NHL (for the record, I don’t know anything about how Pat Brisson is as a person, I’m just applying blatant stereotypes about agents I learned from watching Entourage back in the day).
On top of the obvious skills, he is a smart player who can process the game quickly and rarely makes the wrong decision with the puck. He fearlessly attacks in the offensive zone, and while he is a fantastic perimeter player, he has no issue at all playing in front of the net. Finally, he is also an excellent transitional player—largely due to his elite hands and skating—and he is no slouch in his own zone either.
All of this praise, so why do I only have him ranked 20th. To be honest, at the end of the day, I’m always a little skeptical of guys who have tremendous rises this late in the draft. Yes, I was late on recognizing the talent, but at the end of the day he wasn’t really on the radar of anyone in the industry as a potential first rounded coming into the year, so I wasn’t the only one. Since this is a Rangers blog after all, I will say that taking him at 13—the Rangers current projected draft slot—is a little too rich for my blood (although I would talk myself into liking the boldness of it), mainly given the fact a few guys in my top-11 will probably be available at 13. But, if the Rangers nab Brisson with the pick they got from Carolina in the Brady Skjei trade, I would be thrilled.
Anton Lundell
Prospect Profile:
- Position – Center
- Team (league) – HIFK (Liiga)
- Nation – Finland
- Birth Date – October 3, 2001
- Handedness – Left
- Height & Weight – 6’ 1’’, 187 lbs
Ranking Summary:
- My Ranking: 5
- Colin Cudmore: 8
- Sam Cosentino: 12
- Craig Button: 16
- Mike Morreale: 10
I want to stress how confident I am in my assertion that, even in a draft class such as this with a deep top-end talent pool, Anton Lundell is a no-brainer top-10 pick for me. I know Lundell is a bit more high profile than I usually role with in these Ty Smith Memorial Trophy discussions, but that is how firmly I believe in my convictions that he is a blue chip prospect.
The knocks on him all relate to the same thing: some in the industry don’t feel he has the high-end, dynamic “talent” of some others in this range, and due to that they feel he has a limited ceiling. They have a point, to an extent that is. Sure, Anton Lundell does not possess the dynamic ability and eye-popping highlight reels of some others in this draft class.
Counterpoint: So what?
If dynamic ability is what actually drives NHL success, Antonio Stranges and Brendan Brisson would be significantly higher up most draft boards, and NHL players like Tomáš Hertl would be bigger household names than Patrice Bergeron or Jonathan Toews.
Ok, I’m obviously being purposefully flippant to prove a point here, and I should clarify that dynamic talent does matter to me, and if you just read my write-up on Brisson you will see that clearly I value it. However, that is literally the only flaw in Lundell’s game. In terms of an overall game and skill profile, Anton Lundell is in the argument for the most well-rounded player in this entire draft class.
Sure, he does not possess elite skating, an elite shot—although I’d argue that his wrist shot is much better than he gets credit for—or elite handle, and because of this his highlight packages can be a bit underwhelming compared to a guy like Tim Stützle. However, he does have one elite trait, that in my opinion, helps to completely mitigate any potential risk that comes with taking a player like Lundell.
He has an elite hockey IQ. And I do mean elite. This isn’t me being hyperbolic, and using “elite” to mean very good. I think he is on a very, very short list of players in the argument for the highest hockey IQ in this draft class.
Because of his exemplary hockey sense. Lundell makes quicker, and better, decisions than his opponents, which allows him to get a head start on plays in all areas of the ice. Just like an elite NFL quarterback or NBA point guard, he sees opportunities developing before they actually materialize. His anticipation and decision-making skills are truly elite, which I believe more than make up for any dynamic shortcomings he may have relative to the competition.
One last note specifically for Ranger fans. I’ve heard some say he, “sounds like Lias Andersson 2.0.” Sure, he might have a similar mold to Andersson—and for the record I still believe Andersson will have a good NHL career—but if we are treating this like an NHL create-a-player and assigning numeric ratings to all skills, he has higher ratings than Andersson across the board. How about this for a better Rangers-centric comparison: prime Derek Stepan, but more decisive and better skating.
I understand at the end of the day the prospect of drafting a better version of Derek Stepan in the top-10 may not sound like the most exciting thing in the world, and I get it. We all love to pretend like all top-10 picks should become perennial all stars. Fact of the matter is, this notion is the furthest thing from the truth, and you can find almost as many absolute busts from the top-10 as overwhelming successes when you analyze the draft results in the modern era.
I believe Anton Lundell’s most likely outcome is a Derek Stepan-type player, who anchor one of your top two lines and play well in all situations and all areas of the ice. I also believe Lundell has a decently high ceiling. I believe it is within his realistic possible outcomes to become a true first line center with perennial Selke candidate potential. Do I think he is a future Hart nominee? No, probably not. Is his ultimate ceiling potentially a little lower than some guys I have slightly after him, like Alexander Holtz and Marco Rossi? Perhaps. But at the end of the day, I think it is foolish to base prospect analysis only on upside potential, and if you are telling me at 5 (and likely later), even in a very strong draft class like this, I can have a guy that probably won’t be a Hart candidate, but who will very likely fall somewhere between Derek Stepan and Patrice Bergeron and be as close to a guaranteed piece to build with in the top-6 as possible—outside of the elite, elite names of course—then I have just one response.
Jan Mysak
Prospect Profile:
- Position – Center/Left Wing
- Team (league) – Hamilton (OHL)
- Nation – Czech Republic
- Birth Date – June 24, 2002
- Handedness – Left
- Height & Weight – 6’ 0’’, 181 lbs
Ranking Summary:
- My Ranking: 11
- Colin Cudmore: 13
- Sam Cosentino: Not ranked (31)
- Craig Button: 34
- Mike Morreale: 29
Similar to Anton Lundell, most draft pundits agree that Jan Mysak is a good player and has an NHL future. The question is, how good?
My answer: VERY good.
I’m here to tell you that my belief is that Mysak is a fantastic prospect, and worthy of top-10 consideration in this draft. Yes, I have Mysak at 11, which indeed is not in the top-10, but I also have him on my forth tier, which spans 8-14 and includes some prospects that have gotten considerably higher praise than Mysak over the year, including Jamie Drysdale, Cole Perfetti and Yaroslav Askarov. By having them on the same tier, that means I feel they are all of similar overall caliber, and they could be drafted in any order and I would not take issue.
Ok, so I think he’s very good. You can all just trust me right? I don’t need to explain why? That’s how things work nowadays right?
Alright, fortunately for you (or unfortunately?), I cannot just leave it at that, not even as a joke. I’m cringing as I type this just thinking of leaving it as is.
As an analytics enthusiast, I must admit my case for Mysak goes far beyond the numbers, and in fact the numbers from his draft season at least may be misleading. First of all, the numbers from his draft season are difficult to interpret, as he played part of the season in the Czech pro league, Extraliga, and part in the OHL with the Hamilton Bulldogs. Beyond the complexities of trying to account for him switching leagues halfway through the season, you also must consider the human element. If you are 17 years old and just up and moved halfway across the world, away from your family and friends, would that have an impact on your performance (among many other things)? If you answered no, you are either full of shit, or you were the single most mature 17-year-old to ever walk the earth. My bet is you are full of shit.
In addition to the data interpretation complexities and the personal factors, you have the fact that he also is going from playing with/against adults to teenagers, playing in completely new systems and trying to learn them on the fly, all on a smaller ice surface. It’s hard enough to trust the production of prospects as is, without all of these extra variables. Needless to say, the point is, don’t over-analyze the draft year raw production when it comes to Mysak. Ok, enough preamble. Time for why I like Mysak more than most, and why he is a finalist for the coveted Ty Smith Memorial Trophy.
First and foremost, I love players that possess two attributes that seem counter-productive, but when combined right lead to an excellent playmaker: patience and decisiveness. Mysak is extremely confident in his abilities with the puck on his stick, and he is not afraid to hold onto the puck in order to pass up a good play for a better play. For Ranger fans, you can see this in spades with Adam Fox’s game, which was a reason why I was firm in my belief last season that trading for Fox was a fantastic deal, and that he immediately became the Rangers best defensive prospect.
With Mysak, this manifests itself a variety of ways. One hallmark to his game that I’ve noticed is that he’ll often have the puck in the offensive zone, and instead of just passing it back to the point when the defense shuts down the other passing lanes, he will put a little deke on the defender, causing a lane to open for him to either shoot, skate it into the slot or move it to a teammate with advantageous positioning. Many young players will either try to do too much and hold onto the puck too long, or they will treat the puck like a game of hot potato and try to move it too quickly. Mysak instead is comfortable with the puck, uses his skating and puck handling skill to create his own opening, and then decisive enough to either take the shot, press forward or move it to an open teammate.
In terms of his skill profile, I would personally give Mysak high marks across the board. I think he is a very good all-around skater, and has particularly impressive edgework and a powerful stride. He does not have the blazing top-end speed of some, but he’s fast enough, which coupled with his good agility (I’ve seen some critique his agility, I do not agree with the critiques), edgework, power and creativity allow him to get pretty much wherever he wants on the ice, with little the defender can do to stop him.
His shot I view as similar to his skating. With skating, top-end speed is the most noticeable attribute, and with a shot it’s the raw power, and admittedly these are perhaps the two weakest aspects to Mysak’s skating and shot (although, to be clear, they are both still plenty good). However, Mysak is deadly accurate with his shot, and he also has a very compact shooting style that allows him to snap off a shot as quick as anyone. He also has a great ability to get his shot off in high traffic with relative ease. He reminds me a bit of Pavel Dorofeyev in that respect, in terms of how deceptive he can be with his shot as he can go from skating to the puck being halfway towards the net in the blink of an eye.
In addition to having impressive overall skating and shooting abilities, he also has remarkably soft hands, a great handle, good vision and a fearlessness when it comes to driving towards the net, even against bigger and older players. He’s also deadly in transition and not a slouch in his own zone either. He probably does not have any Selke trophies in his future, but I would push back at anyone that hints at a notion that he is a defensive liability or not adept enough defensively to be able to play center in the NHL. In my opinion, Mysak is a complete player with the potential to be a dominating offensive force in the NHL, and as a Rangers fan, I’d be thrilled to hear the Rangers call his name at 13.
Zion Nybeck
Prospect Profile:
- Position – Left Wing/Right Wing
- Team (league) – HV71 (SHL)
- Nation – Sweden
- Birth Date – May 12, 2002
- Handedness – Left
- Height & Weight – 5’ 8’’, 176 lbs
Ranking Summary:
- My Ranking: 15
- Colin Cudmore: 22
- Sam Cosentino: Not ranked (31)
- Craig Button: 52
- Mike Morreale: Not ranked (31)
The tale of Zion Nybeck’s draft stock is one that I cannot believe is something that we still endlessly debate in 2020, where the likes of Johnny Gaudreau, Brayden Point and Brad Marchand terrorize opposing defenders despite all standing well under six feet tall. Sure, there are some fair critiques to his game, and his riskier style of play definitely does not appeal to everyone, but when you look at this kid’s special skillset combined with the production, he’s a clear-cut first round worthy player to me.
Nybeck compiled 66 points in just 42 games with HV71’s J20 squad in the SuperElit league, which led the entire league and was 17 above the next closest draft year player, Theodor Niederbach. While Nybeck in an impressive power play performer, what makes these numbers even more impressive is the fact that 22 of his 26 goals were scored at even strength, also tops among draft eligible players in the league. His dominance on the U20 team earned him a handful of games with the big club; however, he largely just rotted on the bench and was given little opportunity. Nybeck also performed at a very high level with Sweden’s U18 team in international play, although I will stress that I put far more stock in league play than international play.
In terms of his skill profile, not many possess a better combination of speed, hands and intelligence than Nybeck. Just in case you can’t tell, I have a penchant for players with high hockey IQs, and I will always favor a player who works smart over one that simply works hard (obviously possessing both is ideal). In terms of skating, Nybeck has good top-end speed, incredible agility and great edgework, which combined allow him to allude defenders at will. Honestly, his skating style reminds me a bit of Artemi Panarin, especially with his ability to slip away from hits, creating plenty of open ice in the process. Also similar to Panarin, he is ALWAYS moving, and you rarely will ever catch a glimpse of him standing still on the ice.
He has great vision, hands and passing skills, culminating in Nybeck being one of the more gifted playmakers I’ve seen in this draft class. He also has a fantastic wrist shot which consists of a quick release and deadly accuracy. Nybeck won’t be wining any hardest slapshot competitions in his career, but his shot has enough power behind it that I feel comfortable in it translating to the next level. Also, while he is certainly on the smaller side and can be pushed around a bit by stronger players, he is fearless in the offensive zone, and he shows no hesitancy in crashing the net. He honestly reminds me a bit of Mats Zuccarello in that fashion—similarly he also seems to thoroughly enjoy laying hits on larger opponents and mucking it up after the play.
Defensively Nybeck certainly has some growing to do, but the skills are all there to be a complete player. His positioning is sound, he has an active stick and he often reads the play well. The one negative I’ve noticed in watching him is that he is overly aggressive at times, and too often gambles and tries to jump a passing lane too early. However, thanks to his elite quickness, he can get back into position quicker than almost anyone, mitigating the downside of his risks.
All in all, I honestly do not see any reason for Nybeck to be ranked out of the first round on so many lists I’ve seen. But hey, this obviously is not an exact science, and we all have our preferences and biases—that is part of what makes this fun! Given the way NHL teams typically draft, I won’t be surprised to see his name not called until the second round. Personally, I’d be very happy if the Rangers took Nybeck with the second first round selection they have, courtesy of Carolina.
And the Envelope Please
The time is upon us. It is time to announce the winner of the third annual Ty Smith Memorial Trophy, and the individual whose name will go down in history alongside that of Ty Smith and Pavel Dorofeyev.
Drum roll please.
JAN MYSAK, COME ON DOWN!
I’m not exaggerating when I say I put way more thought and effort into determining the winner this year than I will ever admit to anyone. However, I ended up deciding on Mysak because, similar to the trophy’s namesake, he’s someone that nearly everyone agrees is good, but I am just adamant he will be excellent. I honestly believe Mysak has next to no bust potential at all, and also has the skill, hockey IQ and drive to far exceed the expectation of many pundits, and I for one will be thrilled if he dons the Broadway Blue sweater on draft day.
