Breaking Down the Vesey vs. Buchnevich “Debate”

[text_output]Before I begin my analysis of Jimmy Vesey and Pavel Buchnevich, I want to be very clear about something. I love the fact that BOTH Jimmy Vesey and Pavel Buchnevich are New York Rangers. Both players bring separate sets of skills and abilities to the table that, when deployed properly, will be able to help the Rangers for years to come. They are very different players. Pavel is an offensively-gifted, playmaking wing that is perfectly suited for a top-6 role that includes plenty of use on the power play for just about any team in the NHL. Jimmy Vesey, while skilled in his own right, is better served as a reliable middle-6 wing with a decent shot that brings consistent effort to both ends of the ice. However, thanks to head coach Alain Vigneault’s recent demotion of Buchnevich from the top line, where he was playing admirably, to the fourth line, and a pew pointed comments by certain members of the media covering the Rangers, social media has been obnoxiously embroiled in the debate over which player is better at this moment.

It should also be noted before we begin that the vast majority of the fanbase agrees that Buchnevich has more upside, including the media members whose comments sparked the most recent iteration of this debate. Because of this, we will strictly focus on the argument of which player is better suited to help the Rangers win games this year.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h5″ looks_like=”h5″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]The Eye Test[/custom_headline][text_output]Every analytics-focused hockey writer or analyst worth listening to will admit that all of the charts, graphs and spreadsheets in the world cannot fully replace the traditional analysis garnered from watching the games, so the eye test is where we will begin our analysis. Whether it be in real time or after the fact, I have watched every single Rangers game played this year, and all but two games over the past two seasons. I am not a professional scout, but I’ve been watching and analyzing the game long enough to know how to watch the game for analytical purposes, as opposed simply sitting back with a beer and enjoying the game. The keys: don’t only follow the puck, understand the system the team employs for perspective on where players should be positioned and how they are supposed to attack and defend, and be conscious of your own inherent biases to best avoid from letting confirmation bias seep into your analysis.

When Buchnevich was on the top line with Kreider and Zibanejad earlier this season, I thought he looked absolutely dynamic. He was not simply a passenger on the line, taking advantage of playing with high quality teammates, which some have inappropriately suggested. Buchnevich was a force in the offensive zone. He created some brilliant chances for his linemates, and pinned the opponent in their own zone time and time again. I also thought it appeared that he had good chemistry with his linemates, and had a good feel for how to best complement the varying abilities of Kreider and Zibanejad.

Long story short, I thought Buchnevich very much deserved his spot on the top line, and it doesn’t make any sense for him to now be playing on the fourth line. I understand breaking up the top line in an attempt to get the other lines producing, but in no way, shape or form does that equate to him dropping to the fourth line to play alongside the likes of Paul Carey, Adam Cracknell or any other AHL-caliber players the Rangers eventually place there.

Further, Pavel has a talent level that transcends the abilities of most of his teammates. Simply put, the guy can do things with the puck that few on the team are capable of. Courtesy of Gotham Sports Network’s Brandon Fitzpatrick (whom I highly recommend following on Twitter), here are two gifs that exemplify the abilities of Pavel Buchnevich.

This first gif is from the Rangers October 8 victory over Montreal. After a dump in, the tenacious forecheck from Kreider and Buchnevich results in the Rangers recovering the puck. Buchnevich then feeds this gorgeous pass to Zibanejad, completely fooling Carey Price and resulting in a goal.[/text_output]

[text_output]In this next gif, Buchnevich shows off his shot, when he hammers home the brilliant feed from Zibanejad to tie the game up at 2 against Pittsburgh on October 17.[/text_output] [text_output]I think the tape has also been fairly favorable to Vesey so far in his career. It is hard to judge the latter half of last season when he clearly hit the rookie wall that all college players hit. It is also difficult to discern any real value from the tape of the first few games of this season when he was thrown on the fourth line, a move I was not on board with personally. However, when he was fresh last season and since he’s been paired with Hayes and Miller this year, he has looked strong.

Vesey has been tenacious on the forecheck, responsible in his own end for a young player, and strong on the puck; all qualities imperative to an effective middle line winger. Vesey’s ability to control the puck with a defender glued to him is particularly impressive, and it reminds me a bit of Kevin Hayes and Rick Nash. This ability of his was most certainly a major contributing factor to his line’s dominance over the Predators over the weekend. Vesey shows flashes of high talent here and there, but for the most part he seems to understand that he is not someone that is relied upon to be a primary playmaker, and this sort of self-awareness is something I believe very much helps his game.

This first gif, also courtesy of Brandon Fitzpatrick, shows the tenacious forecheck from Vesey I just referenced. The gif is from the Pittsburgh game on October 17, and Vesey is able to steal the puck away from the Penguins in the offensive zone, which led to more sustained pressure from the Rangers.[/text_output]

[text_output]This next gif is from the recent game against the Sharks, and shows Vesey slamming Brenden Dillon. Another example of the tenacity Vesey brings; and to be honest, the main reason I’m including this gif is because it’s just a fantastic gif to watch. How could anyone not love this kid?[/text_output] [custom_headline type=”left” level=”h5″ looks_like=”h5″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Standard Counting Statistics[/custom_headline][text_output]We will start our statistical analysis by looking at the 5v5 and all situations standard counting statistics accumulated by each player over their young careers thus far. All data provided throughout this article is courtesy of Corsica, a fantastic hockey analytics website from Emmanuel (Manny) Perry that I recommend to all fans. The data in the table below accounts only for regular season production; as I stated in my Chris Kreider article, playoff data often skews analysis due to more difficult competition and different styles of both play and officiating.

In 90 regular season games so far, Vesey averaged just over 12 minutes per game in 5v5 play and close to 14 total minutes per game. He has amassed 11 goals and 9 assists in 5v5 play, and 17 goals with 12 assists in all situations; completely respectable numbers for a young middle-six player who isn’t relied upon to be a primary point producer. Other notable statistics of Vesey’s include 110 total shots on goal, 45 takeaways, 71 hits and five less penalties taken than drawn in 5v5 play.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”781″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Thanks to injuries and some coaching ineptitude, Buchnevich has played just 51 games so far in his career, averaging just 10.81 minutes per game at 5v5 and 13.55 in all situations. During this time, he accumulated 6 goals and 12 assists in 5v5 play and 9 goals with 16 assists across all situations. Similar to Vesey, Buchnevich also drew 5 more penalties than he took during 5v5 play, and he took 77 total shots in all situations.

The raw totals don’t tell us much in our comparison of the two players however, due to the fact that Vesey has played 39 more games already. To truly get an apt comparison of the counting stats, we should look at the per-game numbers. Do not confuse this with the rate statistics (per-60 minutes), which we will get to later in our analysis. Further, because of the fact that Buchnevich logged roughly 2.75 minutes per game of power play time, compared to just 1.8 for Vesey, we will focus solely on the 5v5 number to get a more accurate comparison, as power play time can quickly skew offensive production data.

Despite playing over a minute less per game than Vesey, Buchnevich is tied with Vesey in goals per game (0.12), and leads him with 0.24 and 0.35 assists and points per game, respectively, compared to 0.10 and 0.22 assists and points per game from Vesey. However, Vesey has pretty sizable advantages in giveaways (0.37 to 0.47), takeaways (0.5 to 0.27), hits (0.79 to 0.37) and blocked shots per game (0.47 to 0.22), all speaking to his role as more of a two-way player compared to the playmaker Buchnevich.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”782″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Takeaway: The massive difference in games played between Buchnevich and Vesey requires us to, at the very least, look at the per-game metrics if we wish to gain any true perspectives out of the standard counting statistics. The standard stats help support the conclusions we drew in the eye test section of this article, that Buchnevich is a more skilled playmaker while Vesey is more of a two-way middle-6 forward. They put up similar scoring numbers per game, but Buchnevich has produced far more assists while Vesey was more responsible with the puck and amassed better defensive-related stats such as takeaways, hits and blocked shots.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h5″ looks_like=”h5″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Individual Rate (Per-60 Minute) Statistics[/custom_headline][text_output]While per-game stats are more useful than raw totals when evaluating two players who have a big disparity in games played such as Vesey and Buchnevich, they do not account for the difference in playing time between the two. To account for this, we need to go one step further, and look at the rate statistics, or per-60 minute numbers, produced by each player. I mentioned in the previous section that when looking at per-game stats, it was best to only focus on 5v5 because including power play numbers can skew the data. This is especially true for rate statistics, so this section will exclusively focus on 5v5 production. The table below provides the same statistics discussed in the previous section, but exclusively for 5v5 and in terms of per-60 minute production.

I’ve also included a few individual advanced statistics, such as the shot attempts (Corsi), unblocked shot attempts (Fenwick), and expected goals generated by each player. These stats provide valuable context to the impact each player has on the games, as each have been proven by noted hockey statisticians such as Rob Vollman and Dawson Sprigings (better known as DTMAboutHeart on Twitter), to be better predictors of future success than standard statistics such as goals and shots on goal. I’m particularly fond of expected goals, which considers shot type, quantity and quality to determine how many goals a player realistically should’ve had, given the quality of chances they generate. If you’d like more information on expected goals, please check out my recent article discussing the importance of the stat.

To this point in his young career, Pavel Buchnevich has produced 0.65 goals, 1.31 assists, and 1.96 points per-60 minutes. These are extremely impressive numbers for such a young player. For context, his 1.31 assists per-60 ranks 36^th among all NHL players with at least 500 minutes played since the start of 2016. For more context, Sidney Crosby has lodged only 1.24 assists per-60 in 5v5 play over this time, and players with similar figures include Elias Lindholm (1.28), Mitch Marner (1.32) and Nikita Kucherov (1.34). His 1.96 points per-60 ranks tied for 60^th in the NHL, tied with JT Miller and Jack Eichel, and only 0.01 behind Chris Kreider, John Tavares and Tyler Seguin. Now, to be clear, I am NOT saying that if Buchnevich got the same playing time as these established stars like Tavares and Seguin that he would put up the same production. While Buchnevich’s talent is tantalizing, and he absolutely deserves to be within the Rangers top-6, playing all of his time on the top line and facing the opponents’ best defenders every night almost certainly would have an impact on those rate stats.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”785″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]There is one negative to highlight with his numbers however, and it is something that has been pointed out with many fans: his turnover numbers. While 2.61 giveaways per-60 isn’t any crippling amount, it certainly is something he needs to improve upon, and I’m sure Pavel himself would agree. That number is good for 45^th most in the league, and 18^th most amongst forwards.

Jimmy Vesey’s numbers aren’t quite as scintillating as Pavel’s, but they are still just fine given his age, role and talent profile. He has put up 0.61 goals, 0.5 assists and 1.11 points per-60. Players with comparable points per-60 numbers include Sam Bennett (1.11), Calle Jarnkrok (1.14) and defenseman Roman Josi (1.10). Perhaps Vesey’s most impressive rate stat is his 2.49 takeaways per-60, good for 41^st in the NHL and on par with Ryan O’Reilly (2.58), Jamie Benn (2.50) and Reilly Smith (2.49).

Neither Vesey’s nor Buchnevich’s individual Corsi, Fenwick or expected goals numbers stand out one way or another, and both players put up similar per-60 production in each to this point in their careers.

[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”786″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Takeaway: The rate statistics paint a very clear picture that aligns with the profiles we have already established throughout this article. Pavel Buchnevich has elite playmaking ability for a player his age, and the fact that he is currently stuck on the fourth line is among the dumbest things Alain Vigneault has done during his tenure with the Rangers. Jimmy Vesey has put up respectable production numbers in his own right given his role, and has impressive defensive-related numbers, particularly his high takeaways per-60.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h5″ looks_like=”h5″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Team Impact Analysis[/custom_headline][text_output]Now it’s time to round out our analysis of each player by taking a look at the team-level statistics amassed while each player is on the ice. We look at a variety of traditional and advanced stats in this section, and include both rate and relative statistics. Team-level rate statistics logged while a player is on the ice serves as a much more accurate representation of a player’s impact on the team than his individual stat counts. Relative statistics add another layer of analysis, as they look at how the player does relative to his average teammate, to help mitigate the impact that the team has on the player. For example, the Rangers have been generally a poor possession team, so players typically will have a Corsi For % under 50%. Relative statistics account for this, and benchmark the player’s Corsi For % against the average. It isn’t perfect, as players who play the majority of their minutes with the same players will still be impacted by those teammates, but it is a significant step in the right direction of isolating a player’s impact on his team.

Vesey has poor Corsi, Fenwick and shot rate differentials, and the relative stats show he has been well below average even amongst his teammates. In fact, despite his impressive defensive individual statistics highlighted in earlier sections, he has below average relative shot suppression numbers (Corsi against, Fenwick against, shots against). To the crowd that makes the point that goals are more important than shot attempts: well, he also has a paltry 43.37 goals for percentage, and a -10.56 relative goals for %. His expected goals numbers aren’t great, but they do paint a slightly better picture, as he has a 45.55 expected goals for % (xGF%) and a -4.66 relative xGF%. The team has a PDO of 99.61 and a relative PDO of -1.7, suggesting that he has gotten mildly unlucky, but his numbers have largely been representative of his play. It should be noted however that AV does slightly favor deploying him in the defensive zone, with a 1.33 relative defensive zone start % compared to -0.22 and -1.11 relative offensive and neutral zone start %s.

Pavel Buchnevich’s numbers on the other hand are very impressive. The team sports a 50.68 CF% while he is on the ice, which is good for a 3.44 relative CF%. The team scores 3.05 goals per-60 with him on the ice and allows only 2.5, resulting in an impressive GF% of 54.9% and a relative figure of 3.13. Perhaps most impressively, the team has an xGF% of 55.5% with him on the ice, and Buchnevich has a relative xGF% of 8.36. The team’s PDO of 101.87 and his relative PDO of 0.91 suggests he has gotten slightly lucky, but similar to Vesey, the numbers are large enough to make that big of a difference. In terms of deployment, AV has favored starting him in the neutral zone, as Pavel has a 1.58 relative neutral zone start % compared to -0.67 and -0.91 offensive and defensive zone start percentages.[/text_output][image type=”thumbnail” float=”none” src=”788″ alt=”” href=”” title=”” info_content=”” lightbox_caption=”” id=”” class=”aligncenter” style=””][text_output]Takeaway: The team-level rate and relative statistics when Vesey and Buchnevich are on the ice paint a very clear picture that Buchnevich, to this point in their careers at least, has been the far more impactful Ranger. In fact, every single one of Pavel’s relative statistics suggest that he is better than the team average, while almost all of Vesey’s suggest the opposite. Neither player’s deployment in terms of zone starts is significant enough to have a large impact on their numbers, and the PDO figures suggest luck might play a minor role at best. It should be noted however, that Alain Vigneault has really screwed with their line deployment over their brief careers, which could have an effect. Pavel has gotten more run on the top line than Vesey, which for sure could help his numbers, but he also has inexplicably gotten significant run on the 4^th line, which mitigates the top line effects.[/text_output][custom_headline type=”left” level=”h5″ looks_like=”h5″ accent=”true” id=”” class=”” style=””]Conclusion[/custom_headline][text_output]When you consider all of the factors, including the skill profiles, eye test, standard statistics and advanced analytics, it becomes pretty clear that Pavel Buchnevich is currently the more impactful player on the Rangers. This is not a knock on Jimmy Vesey; Vesey has been fine in his own right given his situation. It is simply just an objective statement given the evidence at hand. Both players are still young and have plenty of developing to go, and I am excited to see how good each can become. At the end of the day, this debate that has been occurring on social media does not matter. What matters is that both players are Rangers, both players fill their roles well, and both players should hopefully play critical roles in the team’s success for years to come. Hopefully the coaching staff and management understand this as well, and put both players in the best situations to continue to develop and realize their full potential.[/text_output]